Key points

• As of Thursday morning, the National Weather Service had Flood Warnings covering at least 16 counties across seven states, from Iowa to Florida, meeting the day's threshold for river flooding on the wire.
• The Wabash River near Linn Grove, Indiana, was forecast to crest at a level the warning itself called approaching the flood of record, with some evacuations possible.
• Only one of the eight warnings names rain as a stranger cause: the Withlacoochee River in Florida has been rising since July because aquatic weed growth is damming the channel, not because of a storm.

A river rise with no single storm behind it

None of Thursday's flood warnings share a weather system. They share a threshold: enough counties, in enough states, to be the day's flood story on the wire, and each one is worth its own line.

The sharpest number sits on the Wabash River in northeast Indiana. The National Weather Service's Northern Indiana office, in warnings issued at 6:25 a.m. EDT Thursday, said the river near Linn Grove was forecast to rise to 14.3 feet against a flood stage of 11.0 feet, and wrote plainly that this approaches the flood of record. At that level, the warning said, secondary roads are blocked, roads near the east side of Geneva begin to flood, and some evacuations may be required. A separate segment of the same river near Bluffton, in Wells County, was reported minor: a crest of 12.6 feet against a flood stage of 10.0 feet, enough to flood the access road to the Bluffton wastewater treatment plant.

In southwest Iowa, NWS Omaha/Valley said small stream flooding on the East Nishnabotna River near Riverton, in Fremont and Page Counties, followed excessive rainfall and was expected to end by 9:45 a.m. CDT Thursday.

Missouri and Kansas carried three more river warnings from NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, all issued Wednesday night: the Grand River near Sumner, forecast to reach moderate flooding across Chariton, Carroll, Livingston and Linn Counties; the Platte River near Agency in Buchanan County, forecast to minor flood stage; and Stranger Creek at Easton, on the Atchison-Leavenworth county line, also forecast to minor flood stage.

In central Arizona, NWS Phoenix warned Maricopa and Pinal Counties overnight for flooding from excessive rainfall, with a county flood-control gauge already reading flood stage on the East Maricopa Floodway and low-water crossings at risk in rural parts of both counties into Thursday morning.

The odd one out is in Florida. The Withlacoochee River at Dunnellon, spanning Marion, Citrus and Levy Counties, has been rising since July and reached flood stage on September 15, but NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin's warning gives a cause with no rain in it: excessive hydrilla growth, from the river bottom to the surface, along a 4.5 mile stretch between US 41 and Lake Rousseau, acting like a dam and holding water back. The warning carries no rain in the forecast and no end date, only "until further notice," with the river's 28.2 foot stage compared in the product itself to a previous crest of 28.4 feet on August 25, 2008.

The warnings, for the nerds

Source: NWS active alerts API, fetched 2026-09-17 11:55Z. Stage, flood-stage and crest figures are quoted from each warning's own WHAT/WHERE/ADDITIONAL DETAILS text; "per product" marks the river's own forecast-crest date, which can differ from the alert's technical expiration field.

This is a summary of official warnings, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials.

The rock's live forecast for the places in this story

• Bluffton IN
• Geneva IN
• Riverton IA
• Sumner MO
• Agency MO
• Easton KS
• Dunnellon FL

Key points

• The hottest day in Santa Barbara's record book is September 17, 1913, when the town gauge read 108.0 degrees.
• The archive behind our town pages runs that station from 1893 to 2026, and nothing in those years has topped it.
• Our archive holds 215 record days for this four day stretch of the calendar, 64 of them on September 17 alone.

The day the coast read 108

The hottest day Santa Barbara has on file is not in July. It is not in August. It is the middle of September.

On September 17, 1913, the Santa Barbara gauge, station USC00047902, read 108.0 degrees. The record behind our town pages runs that station from 1893 to 2026. In all of those years, through every summer anyone alive has sat through, no day has come in higher. The number has stood for 113 Septembers.

That is a strange reading for the place. Santa Barbara is a coastal town, and coastal towns are supposed to be the ones that stay cool while the valleys cook. Something turned that arrangement around for a day.

Here is where the rock stops. Our archive records what the thermometer did. It does not record why. There is no NOAA or Weather Service page this desk could pull tonight that explains the 1913 reading, so no explanation appears here. The number is verified. The cause is not ours to offer.

One gauge does a lot of work on that stretch of coast. The same station is the nearest record for six of our towns, from Santa Barbara itself out to Carpinteria about eleven miles down the shore, which means 108.0 is the standing figure on all six town pages rather than six separate measurements. It is one day, told six times.

It is worth knowing that mid September is busier in the record book than most people would guess. Counting today and the three days after it, our archive turns up 215 record days somewhere in the country. September 17 carries 64 of them by itself, from a 105.1 degree afternoon in Granite Falls, Minnesota in 1895 to a run of Puerto Rico rainfall records in 1975. Late summer does not end politely.

The record, for the nerds

Source: the house NOAA station archive, read by beat-history.py on 2026-09-15. Every figure above is a line that tool printed. No figure here comes from anywhere else.

This is a historical summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials.

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The rock's live forecast for the places in this story

• Santa Barbara CA
• Montecito CA
• Mission Canyon CA
• Summerland CA
• Toro Canyon CA
• Carpinteria CA

Key points

• Three gauges across the southwest corner of Puerto Rico, at La Parguera, Lajas and Guánica, each show their wettest day on record falling on the same date: September 17, 1975.
• The wettest of the three, at La Parguera's Magueyes Island station, measured 13.902 inches in that single day, in a record that runs from 1959 to 2026.
• Our archive holds 64 record days on the calendar for September 17 alone; this is the biggest single-day rainfall total among them.

The day three Puerto Rico gauges maxed out together

Our house archive keeps a running tally of the hottest, coldest, wettest and snowiest day each station has ever measured. On the calendar date of September 17, three of those stations, all sitting within a few miles of each other on the southwest coast of Puerto Rico, point to the exact same day: September 17, 1975.

The biggest number belongs to Magueyes Island, the station behind our La Parguera town page. It measured 13.902 inches of rain that day, the most rain that gauge has recorded in a single day across a record that runs from 1959 to 2026. Four miles up the coast, the Lajas substation measured 12.26 inches, its own wettest day in a record stretching back to 1900. And at Ensenada, a mile inland from Guánica, the gauge read 10.299 inches, also its wettest day on file, in a record running from 1959 to 2026.

Here is where the archive stops. It records what each gauge measured and the date it happened; it does not record a cause. This desk has no NOAA or National Weather Service page in hand tonight that names what produced the rain over southwest Puerto Rico on September 17, 1975, so none is offered here. The three numbers are verified. Any explanation of the weather system behind them is not.

The Lajas gauge speaks for the most ground: it is the nearest station of record for twelve of our town pages, from Lajas itself out through San Germán, Cabo Rojo and Boquerón to El Combate at the island's southwest tip. The Guánica gauge covers five town pages nearby, including El Tumbao and Indios. La Parguera's own gauge sits close enough to town, two tenths of a mile, that it speaks only for itself.

The three gauges, for the nerds

Towns the Lajas gauge speaks for: Lajas, Maguayo, Sabana Eneas, San Germán, Betances, Monte Grande, Cabo Rojo, Boquerón, Puerto Real, Hormigueros, Pole Ojea, El Combate.

Towns the Guánica gauge speaks for: Guánica, Fuig, El Tumbao, María Antonia, Indios.

Source: the house NOAA station archive, read by beat-history.py on 2026-09-17. Every figure above is a line that tool printed. No figure here comes from anywhere else.

This is a historical summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials.

The rock's live forecast for the places in this story

• La Parguera PR
• Lajas PR
• Maguayo PR
• Sabana Eneas PR
• San Germán PR
• Betances PR
• Monte Grande PR
• Cabo Rojo PR
• Boquerón PR
• Puerto Real PR
• Hormigueros PR
• Pole Ojea PR
• El Combate PR
• Guánica PR
• Fuig PR
• El Tumbao PR
• María Antonia PR
• Indios PR

Key points

• Emergency management in Adair County, Iowa reported numerous closed roads on Tuesday evening after 2 to 4 inches of rain, with a flood warning running to Wednesday afternoon and Interstate 80 named in the product.
• As of the 8:12 p.m. CDT Tuesday flood watch, heavy rain was expected to expand across southern into central Iowa overnight into Wednesday morning, onto soils the Des Moines office measured at 50 to 90 percent of saturation in its southernmost counties.
• Fourteen flash flood warnings were in force across six Weather Service offices on Tuesday evening, from slot canyons in Utah's San Rafael Swell to the Frijoles burn scar in New Mexico and the Texas South Plains.

Yesterday: the water got ahead of Iowa

Iowa has had this rain before. That is the part that matters.

Tuesday afternoon and evening, September 15, the Weather Service office in Des Moines was not writing about a storm so much as about ground that had run out of room. By 8:07 p.m. CDT, Adair County emergency management had told the office that numerous roads in the county were closed and that water was coming up on Highway 25 south of Greenfield. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain had fallen. The warning the office put out three minutes later named the Middle River, listed Greenfield, Stuart, Adair, Fontanelle, Orient and Bridgewater, and included Interstate 80 between mile markers 73 and 96. Not a radar estimate. People on the ground, reporting closed roads.

Twenty five miles of interstate is a plain way to say how wide a small stream flood can reach in farm country, where the road and the creek have to share the same low spot.

The rivers were doing the slower version of the same thing. At 1:32 p.m. CDT the Raccoon River at the Fleur Drive gauge in Des Moines stood at 12.0 feet and rising, with minor flooding forecast and 13.5 feet the level at which water starts into the low parts of Water Works Park. West of there, the East Nishnabotna at Red Oak read 17.6 feet at 4 p.m. CDT against a bankfull stage of 18.0, and the Omaha office had it cresting at 19.7 feet just after midnight.

In its 6:39 p.m. CDT discussion the Des Moines office described a state cut in three: dry with some sun in the north, warm and humid with some sun in the far southeast, and "off and on showers" in between. The office wrote that many rivers and streams south of Highway 30 had risen, mostly within their banks, "but a few locations have reached or exceeded minor flood stage." It had already trimmed the flood watch off its northern counties twice in one day, once in the morning and again that afternoon, because the problem was moving south.

Iowa, for the nerds

Source: NWS active alerts and the KDMX Area Forecast Discussion issued 6:39 p.m. CDT September 15, 2026, read at 1:31 a.m. UTC September 16. Gauge stages are the values the products state.

Yesterday: canyon country had its own kind of day

The other half of the country's water was in places that hold none of it.

Tuesday evening in the interior West, eleven flash flood warnings were out at once across Utah, Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico, and the wording in them was the wording offices reserve for terrain that turns rain into a moving wall. At 7:09 p.m. MDT the Salt Lake City office extended a warning for south central Emery County, Utah for another half inch to inch of rain over the San Rafael Swell, and it listed the drainages by name: Muddy Creek, Ramp, Cistern, Ding, Dang, Bell, Little Wildhorse, Crack and Chute Canyons. The office called it "another flood wave moving through these drainages." An earlier warning that evening covered Iron Wash, Ernie Canyon and Eardley Canyon on half an inch of rain, which tells you most of what you need to know about how slot canyons work.

In Arizona, the report came from a person rather than a radar beam. At 5:48 p.m. MST the Flagstaff office wrote that the public had reported flash flooding across Gila and Navajo counties, including on Fort Apache Road, with up to 3 inches of rain fallen. The towns listed were Fort Apache, Whiteriver, Canyon Day, Turkey Creek, Seven Mile and East Fork. Twenty one minutes later the same office had a separate warning for Apache County with 1.5 to 3 inches already down.

New Mexico had the case that needs no rain at all to be a problem. At 6:43 p.m. MDT the Albuquerque office extended a warning for the Frijoles burn scar in southeastern Rio Arriba and northeastern Santa Fe counties on 1 to 1.75 inches of rain, naming Chimayo and Cundiyo. Burned ground sheds water like pavement. An inch there is not an inch somewhere else.

And on the Texas South Plains, three counties were under flash flood warnings on real measurements rather than estimates. The Lubbock office had radar and automated rain gauges putting 2 to 4 inches over Hale and Lubbock counties by 7:48 p.m. CDT, with the 7:48 product stating flatly that "flash flooding is already occurring." A fourth warning followed for Lamb County at 8:01 p.m. CDT on up to 3 inches.

The flash flood warnings, for the nerds

Source: NWS active alerts read at 1:31 a.m. UTC September 16, 2026. Rainfall figures are the amounts each product states, from radar, automated gauges or public report as each product says. Times are local to each warning.

Today, officially

The expectation, as of the products on the wire at 1:31 a.m. UTC Wednesday:

The Des Moines flood watch, issued 8:12 p.m. CDT Tuesday and running through Wednesday afternoon, covers 19 counties in central and southern Iowa and says heavy rainfall "expands across southern into central Iowa overnight through Wednesday morning." The Omaha office's watch, issued 3:09 p.m. CDT Tuesday for five southwest Iowa and ten southeast Nebraska counties, runs the same length. Two watches from the Topeka office, issued 6:52 p.m. CDT, cover 20 northeast Kansas counties until 5 a.m. CDT, and two from Kansas City, issued 2:42 p.m. CDT, cover 19 counties in northwest Missouri and the metro until 4:15 a.m. CDT.

The reason those watches exist is in the Des Moines discussion, and it is soil rather than sky. The office cited precipitable water values "around or above 2 inches," unseasonably high, with deep warm cloud depths for efficient rainfall, and National Water Model soil moisture at 50 to 90 percent of saturation in Iowa's bottom row of counties and generally above 80 percent north of that. Its phrase was "limited capacity."

Where the heaviest rain actually lands is a genuine disagreement between the models, and the office said so. Deterministic guidance put 2 to 5 inches over northern Missouri. The 12Z NAM and ECMWF put amounts like that over far southern Iowa instead. The 12Z HREF pushed the highest totals into Missouri, while the REFS ensemble kept a southern tier of Iowa counties in 2 to 4 inches. That is four ways of drawing the same rain, and the office left its watch where it was rather than pick one.

Looking past Wednesday, the office expects showers to go spotty and diminish through Wednesday afternoon and evening, then increase again after midnight into Thursday morning with 1 to at most 2 inches, amounts it described as not concerning except that they would fall on ground with no time to recover.

In the West, the flood watches ran to Wednesday morning: Grand Junction through 9:15 a.m. MDT for the San Juan Mountains, southeast Utah and the Canyonlands, plus a separate flash flood watch for the Central Yampa River Basin to 3 a.m. MDT; Salt Lake City to 3 a.m. MDT for the San Rafael Swell, Capitol Reef, Zion and Glen Canyon; Flagstaff to 7 a.m. MST for the Kaibab Plateau and Grand Canyon Country; Phoenix to 3 a.m. MST; and Albuquerque and El Paso through midnight MDT.

Severe weather was the quiet item. The Storm Prediction Center's day one outlook carried Marginal as its highest category, with a couple of severe storms possible from the southern High Plains to the southern Great Lakes, and two severe thunderstorm warnings from a single office were the national total on the wire. In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression Fifteen-E had 25 knot winds on the 21:00 UTC September 15 advisory. There were no tropical watches or warnings on United States soil.

The national board, for the nerds

Also on the board: flood warnings on the Withlacoochee River at US 41 Dunnellon in Citrus, Levy and Marion counties, Florida and on Horse Creek near Arcadia at SR 72 in DeSoto County, both minor flooding forecast from the Tampa Bay office; and a Fairbanks office flood watch issued 2:21 p.m. AKDT Tuesday for Two Rivers, the Fairbanks metro area and the Upper Kuskokwim Valley, running to 4 p.m. AKDT Wednesday.

Source: NWS active alerts and the SPC day one outlook text, both read at 1:31 a.m. UTC September 16, 2026. The SPC outlook's own issue time did not come through to this desk, so it is not stated; the category and summary are quoted as read. The tropical depression line is the 21:00 UTC September 15 advisory as carried on the wire; no position or pressure was available, so none is given. Yesterday's preliminary storm reports and the WPC excessive rainfall outlook were both unavailable to this desk, each returning HTTP 403.

This is a morning summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials. Iowa stream observations and forecasts are at weather.gov/desmoines/water, the page the Des Moines flood watch itself points to.

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The rock's live forecast for the places in this story

• Greenfield IA
• Stuart IA
• Adair IA
• Des Moines IA
• Red Oak IA
• Whiteriver AZ
• Chimayo NM
• Lubbock TX

Key points

• The federal disaster aid application, 211, and the emergency management agencies for Iowa, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas are gathered here for readers reached by this week's flooding.
• Every link below comes from the Weather Beat's standing verified aid list; nothing is added at press time.
• This is a summary of where to ask, not emergency information.

Where to get help: the Iowa and Southwest floods

This list accompanies today's brief, Iowa ran out of room for the rain, and canyon country had its own flood evening, which named flooding and flash flood warnings in Iowa, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas.

Apply for federal disaster aid. disasterassistance.gov is the federal government's own site to check whether a county has been declared for disaster assistance and to apply. It is for anyone in an affected area, not only those already declared.

Call 211. 211.org is the United Way's 211 line, reachable by call or text, for local aid referrals of any kind.

Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management. homelandsecurity.iowa.gov is Iowa's state emergency management agency, for readers in the Adair County and central Iowa flooding.

Utah Emergency Management. dem.utah.gov is Utah's state emergency management agency, for readers near the San Rafael Swell and the state's other flash flood warnings.

Arizona Department of Emergency and Military Affairs. dema.az.gov is Arizona's state emergency management agency, for readers in Gila, Navajo and Apache counties.

New Mexico Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. dhsem.nm.gov is New Mexico's state emergency management agency, for readers near the Frijoles burn scar flooding in Rio Arriba and Santa Fe counties.

Texas Division of Emergency Management. tdem.texas.gov is Texas's state emergency management agency, for readers on the South Plains flash flood warnings.

American Red Cross. The Red Cross get-help page lists shelters and emergency assistance, for anyone displaced by the flooding.

The Salvation Army. The Salvation Army's national site is a starting point for disaster relief support in an affected area.

SBA disaster loans. The SBA disaster assistance page covers loans for homeowners, renters and businesses, not businesses alone.

Ready.gov, floods. The Ready.gov floods page is the federal government's flood preparedness guidance.

NWS flood safety. The National Weather Service flood safety page is the Weather Service's own flood safety guidance.

This is a summary of where to ask, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials.

Key points

• Hurricane Lowell passed about 110 miles northwest of Lihue overnight with 105 mph sustained winds. As of the 2 a.m. HST advisory, a Hurricane Warning covered Kauai and Niihau and a Tropical Storm Warning covered Oahu.
• Lihue Airport measured a 75 mph gust, a flash flood warning ran overnight on Kauai, and the advisory forecast another 4 to 8 inches of rain there, with storm totals near 24 inches possible.
• On the mainland, Monday brought three preliminary tornado reports in Louisiana, North Dakota, and Nebraska, and today's Storm Prediction Center outlook carries a Slight Risk for central Iowa and far eastern Nebraska, mainly for wind.

Yesterday: Lowell came to Kauai's door

The story of the day happened in the dark, in the middle of the Pacific. Hurricane Lowell spent Monday night closing on the western end of the Hawaiian island chain, and by 11 p.m. HST the National Weather Service office in Honolulu described it as a high-end category 2 about 90 miles west of Lihue. Tropical-storm-force winds were widespread across Kauai by then, and stations on the island's leeward side between Waimea and Barking Sands had already gusted above hurricane force. The core passed to the west of Niihau and Kauai overnight rather than over them, which is the difference between a hard night and a catastrophe.

Kauai still took a beating. Lihue Airport reported sustained winds of 53 mph with a gust to 75 mph near the time of the 2 a.m. HST advisory. Heavy rain sent streams up across the island, and a flash flood warning ran overnight; when Honolulu forecasters extended it at 1:17 a.m. HST, radar showed the rain had ended over Kauai but gauges showed nearly every stream on the island still elevated from runoff, with flooding impacts ongoing in many locations. On Oahu, Daniel K. Inouye International Airport in Honolulu reported a gust of 43 mph.

The mainland had its own Monday. A tornado was reported in Hammond, Louisiana at 2:39 p.m. CDT, where it damaged trees and clipped a school building along a track of about three quarters of a mile. A brief cone tornado was reported near Strawberry Lake, North Dakota at 6:35 p.m. CDT, and a storm chaser reported a third near Spencer, Nebraska at 7:35 p.m. CDT. Around those, a broad ribbon of wind damage stretched from Montana and the Dakotas down through Nebraska to the Gulf Coast parishes of Louisiana, with trees and power lines down from Slaughter to Thomasville.

Lowell, measured

Source: CPHC/NHC Hurricane Lowell Intermediate Advisory 49A, issued 2:00 a.m. HST (1200 UTC) Tuesday, September 8, with position fixed by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

Mainland storm reports, September 7

Source: Storm Prediction Center storm reports for the 12Z September 7 to 12Z September 8 day. All counts and values are preliminary.

Today, officially

Lowell first. As of the 2 a.m. HST advisory, the forecast took the core farther from Kauai County through today, then bent it northwest and west, slowing and weakening, after it clears the main islands. The rain is not done: the advisory forecast an additional 4 to 8 inches on Kauai with maximum storm totals of 24 inches possible, 3 to 8 more inches on the Big Island, and 2 to 5 more on Oahu and Maui County, with significant flash flooding and mudslides possible, especially on Kauai and parts of the Big Island. Storm surge of 2 to 4 feet was forecast for Kauai County, highest along Kauai's south coast and on Niihau, with up to 1 foot on Oahu. The advisory also said several tornadoes were possible near Kauai and Niihau through the overnight period, and that swells from Lowell would keep surf and rip currents life-threatening across many of the islands for the next few days. A statewide flood watch and high surf warnings were in effect overnight, and the 11:06 p.m. HST forecast discussion put it plainly: "High surf and heavy rain will impact all islands with strong winds mainly impacting the western end of the state." The same discussion noted the separate east-shore swell came from former Tropical Storm Karina, now a post-tropical low. The next complete Lowell advisory was scheduled for 5 a.m. HST. If you are in Hawaii, preparedness guidance lives at ready.gov and the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency.

On the mainland, the Storm Prediction Center's 1300 UTC Day 1 outlook, issued 7:31 a.m. CDT, carries a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of central Iowa and far eastern Nebraska. The outlook expects widely scattered severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly for damaging wind gusts, as a cold front works into a moderately to strongly unstable air mass, with more sporadic severe wind and large hail possible from the upper Midwest into the central Plains and a lower-end wind threat spreading into western Kansas in the evening.

Heat is still on the September map. Extreme heat warnings were in effect Tuesday morning from forecast offices in San Diego, Phoenix, and Las Vegas across the desert Southwest, and from Kansas City, Topeka, Springfield, and Tulsa across the southern Plains into western Missouri.

Out in the East Pacific, Tropical Storm Marie held 45 mph winds about 760 miles southwest of San Diego as of the 2 a.m. PDT advisory, moving west-northwest at 8 mph with no coastal watches or warnings in effect. The National Hurricane Center forecast steady weakening to a post-tropical remnant low later today or Wednesday, while its swell keeps beach conditions dangerous along the Baja California peninsula and Southern California for the next couple of days.

This is a morning summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials.

The rock's live forecast for the places in this story

• Lihue HI
• Waimea HI
• Honolulu HI
• Hammond LA
• Spencer NE
• Fort Pierre SD
• Trenton NE
• Armour SD
• Butte NE
• Slaughter LA
• Thomasville AL

Key points

• Kauai and Niihau are under a Hurricane Warning as of 11 p.m. HST Sunday, upgraded from a tropical storm warning after Lowell's track shifted east again. At 2 a.m. HST Monday the category 3 hurricane was 415 miles southwest of Lihue HI with 115 mph winds, its rainbands already spreading over Kauai and Oahu, and its center is forecast to pass just west of Kauai County late today into early Tuesday.
• Sunday was quieter on the mainland: 141 preliminary wind reports, less than half of Saturday's count, but Montana ran a hail night with stones reported to 3 inches and windows broken out near Shepherd MT, and a storm chaser reported a brief tornado touchdown in western North Dakota, the first preliminary tornado report after two straight days without one.
• As of this morning's products: a Slight Risk of severe storms over North Dakota and southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska, mainly for large hail; Flood Watches across northwest and north central Montana through Tuesday morning; and Extreme Heat Warnings around Kansas City and Topeka running through Tuesday evening.

Yesterday

The Southeast's wind streak reached a fourth day, but it is finally shrinking. After Saturday's 340 reports, Sunday produced 141 nationwide, and the center of gravity stayed in South Carolina, which logged 50 of them, more than the next three states combined. The strongest was familiar ground: an NWS employee near Red Bank SC estimated gusts of 65 to 70 mph with small hail at 6:08 p.m. EDT, the same community where a trained spotter clocked 65 mph on Saturday. Georgia added 21 reports, and North Carolina, Saturday's leader with 138, fell to 9.

The bigger story was Montana, and it played out in two acts. The first came Sunday evening in the center of the state. Hail 3 inches in diameter was reported 5 miles north of Hilger MT at 9:25 p.m. MDT, confirmed with a photo from the public per the Great Falls office, with tennis ball hail estimated near Moccasin MT at 8:45 p.m. MDT and 2 inch hail at Danvers MT the same minute. The second act came after midnight near Billings: numerous public reports of hail around 2 inches at Shepherd MT at 2:30 a.m. MDT Monday, with windows broken out. Montana's 11 hail reports led the country.

The night storms carried wind too. A mesonet station 8 miles south of Sibley Peak WY measured 73 mph at 9:18 p.m. MDT, the day's strongest gust anywhere. The Rapid City SD airport measured 67 mph at 1:05 a.m. MDT Monday, and the Baker MT airport station matched it at 2:00 a.m. MDT.

And after two days without one, the country produced a single preliminary tornado report. A storm chaser reported a brief touchdown 8 miles south-southwest of Arnegard ND at 7:17 p.m. CDT Sunday, per the Bismarck office, which notes the location is radar estimated.

Largest measured gusts, September 6 into early September 7:

Largest hail:

Report counts for the day: 141 wind, 27 hail, 1 tornado. Wind reports by state: South Carolina 50, Georgia 21, Missouri 12, North Carolina 9, Florida 7, Mississippi 7, Kansas 6, Alabama 6, Arkansas 5, Montana 3, and 15 more spread across North Dakota, Louisiana, Colorado, Wyoming, South Dakota, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Utah, and Minnesota. Hail reports: Montana 11, North Dakota 4, South Carolina 4, Kansas 3, Iowa 2, and one each in Minnesota, North Carolina, and Missouri.

Source: Storm Prediction Center preliminary storm reports for the 24 hours ending 8 a.m. EDT September 7. All counts, sizes, and gusts are preliminary and subject to revision.

Today, officially

Lowell and Hawaii

The warning got stronger overnight. Per Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisory 45, issued 11 p.m. HST Sunday, September 6, a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau, replacing the tropical storm warning that stood through the weekend. The accompanying discussion states the reason plainly: "Given another eastward shift in the track guidance and the forecast close approach of hurricane-force winds to Niihau, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for Kauai County." A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

Per intermediate advisory 45A, issued 2 a.m. HST Monday, the center of Hurricane Lowell was about 415 miles southwest of Lihue HI and 445 miles southwest of Honolulu HI, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, a category 3, and a central pressure of 950 mb. Lowell was moving north-northeast at 10 mph, and rainbands from the storm were already spreading over Kauai and Oahu at advisory time. On the forecast track the center crosses portions of the marine monument, just west of the main Hawaiian Islands, tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in Kauai County beginning this afternoon or evening, per the advisory, and the discussion's key message puts the pass "late Monday into early Tuesday." An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found the storm holding multiple concentric wind maxima around the eye overnight, with the central pressure slowly rising; gradual weakening is expected, but the forecast keeps Lowell a hurricane through its closest approach.

The rain arrived ahead of the wind. The Honolulu office reissued its Flood Watch for all Hawaiian islands at 3:12 a.m. HST Monday, running through 6 p.m. HST Tuesday, with the watch text noting that moisture along Lowell's eastern flank will bring periods of heavy rain through Tuesday. The advisory forecasts additional rainfall of 6 to 10 inches for Kauai with maximum totals of 14 inches possible, 4 to 8 inches for the Big Island with isolated totals of 12, 4 to 6 inches for Oahu with isolated 8, and 2 to 4 inches for Maui, rain that "may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauai county and portions of the Big Island." Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible in Kauai County and up to 1 foot on Oahu if the peak surge arrives at high tide. Several tornadoes are possible near Kauai and Niihau this afternoon through tonight, per the advisory, with a few possible across the remaining islands.

The surf is its own hazard. A High Surf Warning issued 2:44 p.m. HST Sunday covers south facing shores of all islands plus west facing shores of the Big Island through 6 a.m. HST Tuesday, and the Honolulu forecast discussion, issued 11:15 p.m. HST Sunday, expects the south swell from Lowell to rise rapidly today and peak tonight. The discussion adds a specific worry: "Coinciding also with the peak monthly afternoon high tides, this could bring the potential for significant damage to coastal properties and infrastructure, including roadways to portions of Kauai and possibly Oahu." On the water, a Hurricane Warning covers the offshore waters west of Kauai County and Tropical Storm Warnings cover the Kauai Channel and Kauai windward waters, per the same discussion, which also notes that any deviation in track in the next 24 hours would make a significant difference for the waters around Kauai County.

If you are in Kauai County, preparations should be rushed to completion, in the advisory's own words. Official preparedness guidance is at ready.gov, and the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency is at dod.hawaii.gov/hiema.

Advisory vitals, Lowell:

Source: CPHC Hurricane Lowell intermediate advisory 45A, issued 2 a.m. HST September 7; discussion 45, issued 11 p.m. HST September 6; NWS Honolulu forecast discussion, issued 11:15 p.m. HST September 6.

Severe storms, northern Plains

The Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 outlook, issued 7:44 a.m. CDT Monday, carries a Slight Risk over portions of North Dakota and from southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska. Its summary reads: "Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are expected over portions of North Dakota as well as southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska this afternoon into evening." The setup is a deep upper trough over the western United States with a surface low over east central Montana, and the outlook notes that along one boundary near the North Dakota border, "any storms that develop should become supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and a brief tornado." A broader area of isolated hail and wind risk covers the northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with locally damaging gusts possible along the central Gulf Coast this afternoon and evening.

Montana rain

The same trough that hailed on Montana Sunday night is now a flood concern. The Weather Prediction Center's Day 1 excessive rainfall outlook, issued 4:15 a.m. EDT Monday, places a Slight Risk over northwest and north central Montana, and two forecast offices have Flood Watches running through noon MDT Tuesday: the Great Falls office, issued 6:01 a.m. MDT, for the East Glacier Park region, the Rocky Mountain Front, and the high plains east of the mountains, and the Missoula office, issued 3:59 a.m. MDT, for the West Glacier region, the Flathead and Mission valleys, and the Potomac and Seeley Lake region. Both watches say flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible, with excessive runoff able to flood creeks, streams, and low-lying areas.

Heat, middle of the country and Puerto Rico

Extreme Heat Warnings from the Kansas City office, issued 3:55 a.m. CDT, and the Topeka office, issued 2:13 a.m. CDT, run through Tuesday evening, September 8, for the Kansas City metro, west central Missouri, and much of east and northeast Kansas, with heat index values in excess of 105 per the Kansas City product and 100 to 107 per Topeka's. The Springfield MO office's warning, covering southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas with heat index up to 105, ends at 8 p.m. CDT tonight. In Puerto Rico, an Extreme Heat Warning issued 10:03 a.m. AST covers most of the island until 5 p.m. AST today. And the desert Southwest is next in line: the Phoenix office issued Extreme Heat Warnings at 12:33 a.m. MST Monday that begin Tuesday morning for the Phoenix metro, Yuma, and the lower Colorado River valley, with afternoon temperatures of 104 to 112 forecast into Thursday and Friday. None of the products states a covered population figure.

One reading from the other end of the thermometer: a Freeze Warning from the Medford OR office, issued Sunday morning, expired at 9 a.m. PDT this morning for the Klamath Basin and surrounding high country of southern Oregon and northeast California, including Klamath Falls OR, with lows as cold as 29 degrees. The same national map held a freeze warning and a 110 heat index at once. September does this.

Southeast Texas rivers

Two river warnings remain from Edouard's rain. Per the Lake Charles office's Flood Warning issued 8:11 p.m. CDT Sunday, Pine Island Bayou near Sour Lake TX, affecting Hardin and Jefferson counties, is warned until early Wednesday morning, and the Neches River at the saltwater barrier, affecting Hardin, Jefferson, Jasper, and Orange counties, until Wednesday night. The warning for Village Creek near Kountze TX was cancelled with the same product.

The rest of the tropics

Tropical Storm Marie, per NHC advisory 25 issued 2 a.m. PDT Monday, was about 580 miles west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico with 65 mph winds, weakening, and forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The advisory headline notes the storm is expected to continue producing dangerous beach conditions along the coasts of Baja California and southern California for the next several days; there are no coastal watches or warnings. Former Tropical Storm Karina is now a post-tropical low northeast of Hawaii, per the Honolulu forecast discussion, and its leftover east swell is still contributing to a High Surf Advisory on east facing Hawaiian shores. The Atlantic has no active storms on the NHC board this morning.

This is a morning summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials.

The rock's live forecast for the places in this story

• Lihue HI
• Honolulu HI
• Red Bank SC
• Lexington SC
• Hilger MT
• Moccasin MT
• Danvers MT
• Shepherd MT
• Baker MT
• Arnegard ND
• Rapid City SD
• Dumas TX
• El Dorado Springs MO
• Kansas City MO
• Topeka KS
• Springfield MO
• Phoenix AZ
• Yuma AZ
• Klamath Falls OR
• Sour Lake TX
• Kountze TX

Key points

• A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Kauai and Niihau as of the 5 a.m. HST advisory Sunday. Hurricane Lowell, a category 3 with 125 mph winds about 580 miles south-southwest of Lihue HI, is forecast to pass 100 to 200 miles west of Kauai Monday night, and a Flood Watch covers every island from noon Sunday through Tuesday evening.
• Saturday was the busiest wind day of the stretch: 340 preliminary wind reports nationwide, nearly double Friday's 173, and again not one tornado report. The Carolinas took 232 of them, one person was injured by trees falling on homes near Rogersville TN, and a western Nebraska storm gusted to 83 mph at Kingsley Dam just after midnight.
• As of this morning's products: a Slight Risk of severe storms over the southern Appalachians into the Savannah River valley and another over western and central Montana, Kansas City and Topeka Extreme Heat Warnings running through Tuesday evening, and the southeast Texas river flood warnings now down to four counties.

Yesterday

For the third day in a row the East's afternoon storms put trees down, and for the third day the damage moved south. Thursday it was Pennsylvania to Virginia, Friday it was Virginia and the mountains, and Saturday the Carolinas took the most of it: 138 wind reports in North Carolina and 94 in South Carolina, the two highest state counts in the country.

The day's one reported injury came before the Carolinas even got going. At 11:50 a.m. EDT on September 5, storm winds near Rogersville TN dropped trees onto several homes between Rogersville and the community of Persia, injuring one person, per the Morristown office's report. Three hours later and one state over, photos from McMinnville TN showed the roof of one building peeled off and blown into the restaurant next door at 3:35 p.m. CDT.

Then the Piedmont's turn. Asheboro NC logged four separate tree-on-house reports in a seven minute span starting at 3:11 p.m. EDT, plus a tree and power lines down on a car with a person inside on Farmer Road, no injuries. At 3:35 p.m. EDT the Chatham County 911 center had at least two dozen reports of trees down in Siler City NC, a few of them on homes. The day's strongest East Coast gust, 72 mph, was measured at the Fayetteville airport east of Hope Mills NC at 4:48 p.m. EDT, and Pope Army Airfield measured 64 mph seven minutes later. In South Carolina a trained spotter near Red Bank SC clocked gusts of 55 to 65 mph between 5:40 and 5:45 p.m. EDT, a large tree came down on a house near Blacksburg SC at 3:05 p.m. EDT, and a porch lost its roof near Williamston SC. Georgia added 36 reports, including a large tree onto vehicles in Hall County at 5:15 p.m. EDT.

Hail stayed mostly small in the East: quarter to golf ball size at Fort Barnwell NC at 5:15 p.m. EDT, and 2 inch hail near Flowers in Johnston County at 4:15 p.m. EDT.

The Plains ran their own storm, and it lasted all night. Trained spotters around Alliance NE reported 2 to 2.5 inch hail starting at 4:01 p.m. MDT, with hail accumulating on the ground by early evening. The wind followed: 64 mph east of Bridgeport NE at 6:18 p.m. MDT, 66 mph at the Alliance airport station at 7:24 p.m., 65 mph at a personal weather station near Lorenzo at 9:22 p.m. Then, just after midnight, the storms crossing Keith County hit their peak: 76 mph at a station near Kingsley Dam at 11:57 p.m. MDT, 83 mph on a Union Pacific sensor northeast of the dam at 12:10 a.m. MDT Sunday, and 78 mph west of Paxton NE five minutes later.

Largest measured gusts, September 5 into early September 6:

Report counts for the day: 340 wind, 31 hail, 0 tornado. Wind reports by state: North Carolina 138, South Carolina 94, Georgia 36, Nebraska 17, Virginia 14, Tennessee 12, Kentucky 7, West Virginia 5, Alabama 5, Missouri 4, Texas 2, and one each in Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, and New Mexico. Hail reports: North Carolina 12, Nebraska 12, North Dakota 3, and one each in Colorado, Kentucky, South Carolina, and South Dakota. Largest hail: 2.5 inches, 5 miles west-northwest of Alliance NE.

Source: Storm Prediction Center preliminary storm reports for the 24 hours ending 8 a.m. EDT September 6. All counts and gusts are preliminary and subject to revision.

Today, officially

Lowell and Hawaii

The waiting phase ended overnight. Per Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisory 42, issued 5 a.m. HST Sunday, September 6, a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals. At advisory time the center of Hurricane Lowell was about 580 miles south-southwest of Lihue HI and 600 miles southwest of Honolulu HI, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, a category 3, and a central pressure of 943 mb. Lowell was moving north-northwest at 6 mph, and the advisory forecasts "a turn toward the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed" over the next couple of days, "bringing the center of Lowell across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, just west of the main Hawaiian Islands, Monday night." The advisory expects Lowell to remain a major hurricane through Monday, with gradual weakening beginning tonight.

The Honolulu forecast discussion, issued 5:01 a.m. HST Sunday, puts the pass this way: "Lowell is forecast to pass 100 to 200 miles west of Kauai, and will bring several hazards to the state. The main hazards are expected to be flash flooding, strong winds, and high surf." One bookkeeping note: that discussion still refers to a Tropical Storm watch for Kauai and Niihau; the warning products issued ten minutes earlier and the 5 a.m. advisory both carry the warning, so the discussion's wording simply lags the upgrade.

The rain is not waiting for the storm. The same discussion reports that moisture "has already increased across the area more than forecast," with several windward areas picking up over 1.5 inches in six hours Sunday morning, and the office moved the start of its Flood Watch up from 6 p.m. to noon HST Sunday. The watch covers every island through 6 p.m. HST Tuesday. The advisory's rainfall forecast: 6 to 10 inches for Kauai with maximum totals of 14 inches possible, 4 to 8 inches for the Big Island with isolated totals of 12, 2 to 4 inches for Maui with isolated 8, and 2 to 4 inches elsewhere, rain that "may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island." Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible in Kauai County and up to 1 foot on Oahu if the peak surge arrives at high tide, and swells are "likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions during the next several days across many of the Hawaiian islands." A High Surf Advisory issued 4:17 a.m. HST runs through 6 a.m. HST Tuesday. The discussion also flags a threat of short-lived tornadoes and waterspouts embedded in rainbands, mainly near Kauai and Niihau, as Lowell makes its closest approach Monday night into early Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in Kauai County by Monday afternoon or evening, per the advisory. If you are in Hawaii, today is the day to finish preparations. Official preparedness guidance is at ready.gov, and the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency is at dod.hawaii.gov/hiema.

Advisory vitals, Lowell:

Source: CPHC Hurricane Lowell advisory 42 and NWS Honolulu forecast discussion, both issued 5 a.m. HST September 6.

Severe storms, Southeast and Montana

The Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 outlook, issued 7:51 a.m. CDT Sunday, carries two Slight Risk areas. Its summary reads: "Widely scattered damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of the Southeast this afternoon and early evening. Widely scattered large hail occurrences are expected across portions of western and central Montana this afternoon and evening." The Southeast area runs from the southern Appalachians into the Savannah River valley, the same general country that spent Saturday picking up tree damage; the outlook expects storms in a hot, moist airmass with weak shear, favoring gusty multicells and line segments over anything organized. The outlook also tracks the overnight Nebraska storm complex, noting "a linear MCS continues to push eastward across the central Plains this morning" with new development in south-central and southeast South Dakota and adjacent northeast Nebraska, and it holds isolated severe risk from the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota into the Ozark Plateau and Gulf Coast states.

The Weather Prediction Center's Day 1 excessive rainfall outlook, issued 4:04 a.m. EDT, places Slight Risk areas over the western Carolinas and Georgia into north Florida, from southeast South Dakota and southwest Minnesota into western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and northwest Missouri, and over the Great Basin from southern Nevada across southern Utah.

Heat around Kansas City

The mid-Mississippi Valley heat is on its last widespread day, but not everywhere. Extreme Heat Warnings from the Kansas City office, issued 3:39 a.m. CDT, and the Topeka office, issued 1:50 a.m. CDT, run through Tuesday evening, September 8, for the Kansas City metro and east-central Kansas, with heat index values in excess of 105 per the Kansas City product and 100 to 108 per Topeka's. Warnings covering the rest of west-central Missouri, the Springfield MO area (heat index up to 107), west-central Arkansas per the Tulsa office (up to 112), and Puerto Rico end this evening. None of the products states a covered population figure.

Southeast Texas rivers

The tail of Edouard is down to four counties. Per the Lake Charles office's Flood Warning issued 8:16 p.m. CDT Saturday, Village Creek near Kountze TX is warned until early Monday, Pine Island Bayou near Sour Lake TX until Monday night, and the Neches River at the saltwater barrier, covering Hardin, Jefferson, Jasper, and Orange counties, until early Wednesday.

The rest of the tropics

The other two storms are winding down far from land. Tropical Storm Karina, per CPHC advisory 41 issued 5 a.m. HST Sunday, was about 680 miles east-northeast of Hilo HI with 60 mph winds, forecast to become a post-tropical gale by late tonight. Hurricane Marie, per NHC advisory 22 issued 8 a.m. PDT Sunday, was about 800 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California with 80 mph winds, weakening, with the advisory headline noting dangerous beach conditions along the coasts of Baja California and southern California for another couple of days. Neither has watches or warnings. The Atlantic has no active storms on the NHC board this morning.

This is a morning summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials.

The rock's live forecast for the places in this story

• Lihue HI
• Honolulu HI
• Hilo HI
• Rogersville TN
• McMinnville TN
• Asheboro NC
• Siler City NC
• Hope Mills NC
• Fort Barnwell NC
• Red Bank SC
• Blacksburg SC
• Williamston SC
• Alliance NE
• Bridgeport NE
• Paxton NE
• Kansas City MO
• Topeka KS
• Springfield MO
• Kountze TX
• Sour Lake TX

On the evening of September 5, the showers over Connecticut moved from north to south. For this part of the world that is the wrong direction. Most of the year our weather rides a wind from the west or southwest, so a storm that crosses the state usually arrives from Pennsylvania or the Hudson Valley and leaves toward Rhode Island and the ocean. On Saturday night the showers came down out of New Hampshire and Massachusetts, crossed Connecticut heading south-southeast, and continued toward Long Island. Someone who has watched this sky for decades told us he had never seen it. Here is what did it, from the National Weather Service's own analyses and discussions, and from our radar and wind data.

What happened, measured

Our storm-motion tool reads consecutive radar frames and measures how the echoes shift. At 8 PM, over Oakville in Litchfield County, it measured the cells moving toward the south-southeast, 166 to 169 degrees on the compass, at 14 to 17 mph, frame after frame, with a confidence of about 0.7 on each pair. That is the number behind the impression: the rain was heading south.

The forecasters saw it coming. The New York office wrote at 8:04 PM that showers would develop "across eastern CT and eastern LI before tracking south and west tonight." The Boston office, at 7:49 PM, described "wrap-around moisture in northeast flow across much of New England."

The setup at 8 PM

Three things were in place at the same time, and each one pushed in the same direction.

A closed low aloft, parked to the northeast. The New York office's discussion put it plainly: "An upper low over the Canadian Maritimes will remain nearly stationary through Sunday, sending a series of shortwaves south across the Northeast." Boston called it "slow-moving, closed mid/upper low pressure over the Canada Maritimes" inside "a broad cyclonic mid-level flow." Air circles a low counterclockwise. On the western side of a low that sits over the Maritimes, that circulation runs from north to south, straight across New England. Storm cells travel with the wind a mile or two above the ground, so a cell born over New Hampshire went south.

The Storm Prediction Center's 500 mb chart for that hour shows the flow directly: over New England the winds at roughly 18,000 feet are out of the north and northwest, and the heights run 573 to 579 decameters, low for early September. The low itself sits just off the chart to the northeast.

High pressure to the north and west, low pressure to the south and east. At the surface, the Weather Prediction Center's analysis for the same hour draws high pressure of 1020 to 1021 millibars over the Great Lakes and Quebec, and a cold front along the Mid-Atlantic coast with low pressure on it. Air moves from high pressure toward low, bent to the right in the northern hemisphere, and that gradient sets a surface wind from the north and northeast over the region.

Our own wind field, drawn from the NOAA URMA 2.5 km analysis we keep on our server, shows what that looked like on the ground. Over interior New York and Pennsylvania the arrows point south. Over the waters off New England and the Mid-Atlantic they point south and southwest, strongest offshore. Over Connecticut itself the surface wind was light, about 6 mph in the analysis, because the push was aloft and out over the water; the state sat under the flow rather than in it.

A front and its troughs offshore. The Ocean Prediction Center's forecast for the Mid-Atlantic waters that afternoon had "a slow-moving cold front" reaching the central waters and "a series of low pressure troughs" sliding southeast over the northern waters through Monday. That is where the showers were going. On radar it looks as if something off the Virginia and Delaware coast is drawing the weather toward it, and in a sense it was: the front was the low side of the gradient, and the troughs riding down the flow gave the showers a place to go.

Why it feels so strange

None of these pieces is exotic. Cutoff lows, northeast flow behind a coastal front, wraparound showers: every forecaster in the Northeast has a name for each of them. What is uncommon is the combination sitting over southern New England long enough, in early September, for the showers themselves to travel north to south across a whole state. Our forecasting doctrine treats storm motion as physics: a cell keeps going the way the wind aloft is taking it until it dies. Saturday the wind aloft came from the north, so the cells did too.

How rare is it? Honestly, we do not know yet, and we are not going to guess. We are building the count: storm-motion direction over Connecticut for every storm day from 2010 through 2026, from the archived radar, with the number of storm days each year beside it, plus the direction of the wind aloft over the state year by year from the reanalysis record. If north-to-south days have grown, the count will show it. If they have always been this rare, it will show that too.

What the science says about the jet stream

The question everyone asks is whether the jet stream has changed. Some of that is settled and some is argued, and the piece should say which is which.

Settled, in the peer-reviewed record: the jet streams have moved. Archer and Caldeira, writing in Geophysical Research Letters in 2008, analyzed two reanalysis datasets for 1979 to 2001 and found that "the jet streams have risen in altitude and moved poleward in both hemispheres," and that "in the northern hemisphere, the jet stream weakened." They added that further work was needed to attribute the causes.

Argued: whether a warming Arctic is making the jet wavier and blocking patterns, the stalled lows and highs, more common. Francis and Vavrus, in the same journal in 2012, identified two effects of Arctic warming that "each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper-level flow: weakened zonal winds, and increased wave amplitude." Barnes, in 2013, reexamined that evidence across three reanalyses and reported that "the frequency of blocking occurrence exhibits no significant increase in any season." Both are careful papers, and they disagree. A slower, wavier jet would make a night like Saturday more likely. Whether the record shows that yet is the open question, and no paper we have read dates a change to any single year.

So the honest headline is the one at the top. A stationary low to the northeast, high pressure to the northwest, and a front offshore turned the wind around, and the weather followed it south. The jet stream set the stage, as it always does. Whether it is setting this stage more often than it used to is a question for the count, and we will publish the count.

Where these numbers come from

- Storm motion over Oakville: our own radar frames, cross-correlated frame to frame by myweatherrock's storm-motion tool, 8 PM EDT September 5.

- Radar loop: NOAA MRMS merged reflectivity composite, 20Z September 5 to 04Z September 6, rendered by myweatherrock.

- Wind field: NOAA URMA 2.5 km analysis for 00Z September 6, from the copy myweatherrock keeps for grading its forecasts.

- Surface analysis: NOAA Weather Prediction Center, 00Z September 6, 2026.

- 500 mb analysis: NOAA Storm Prediction Center upper-air chart, 00Z September 6, 2026.

- Forecast discussions: NWS New York (8:04 PM EDT September 5), NWS Boston (7:49 PM EDT), and the NWS Ocean Prediction Center Mid-Atlantic offshore forecast (5:09 PM EDT), quoted as issued.

- Papers: Archer and Caldeira, "Historical trends in the jet streams," Geophysical Research Letters, 2008 (doi 10.1029/2008GL033614); Francis and Vavrus, "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes," Geophysical Research Letters, 2012 (doi 10.1029/2012GL051000); Barnes, "Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes," Geophysical Research Letters, 2013 (doi 10.1002/grl.50880). Quotations are from the published abstracts.

Key points

• As of the 11 p.m. HST advisory Friday, Hurricane Lowell was a category 4 with 155 mph winds about 610 miles south-southwest of Honolulu HI. No watches are in effect, but the Central Pacific Hurricane Center says watches could be required for the westernmost Hawaiian Islands on Saturday, and the Honolulu forecast office puts the closest approach near Kauai County Monday night.
• Friday was another wind day in the East, the second in a row: 173 preliminary wind reports nationwide, 66 of them in Virginia, and not a single tornado report anywhere in the country. The day's biggest measured gust, 81 mph, came from a separate storm near Aspermont TX.
• As of this morning's products: a Slight Risk of severe storms from the Ohio Valley into the Carolinas, Extreme Heat Warnings across six mid-Mississippi Valley states with the Kansas City and Topeka warnings running into Tuesday, and southeast Texas rivers still under flood warnings across six counties.

Yesterday

The front that spent Thursday dropping trees from Pennsylvania to Virginia kept working Friday, one tier of states farther south. The first calls came just after lunch in far western Maryland, where the Friendsville MD area logged about half a dozen reports of trees and wires down starting at 1:05 p.m. EDT on September 4. Through the afternoon the reports spread across southeast Ohio and West Virginia, a tree into a power line in Parkersburg WV at 1:30 p.m. EDT, and around 400 customers without power near Hamden OH.

Virginia took the evening shift, and took the most of it: 66 wind reports, the highest count of any state. Rockingham County lost trees onto power lines in Elkton VA and along McGaheysville Road, and in Lexington VA at 5:58 p.m. EDT, storm winds blew down six trees that landed on multiple power lines and three vehicles. Out on the coastal plain, a metal roof was blown off a house in Elizabeth City NC at 3:44 p.m. EDT. North Carolina's reports ran from mid-afternoon in the foothills near North Wilkesboro NC, where one downed tree fell on a vehicle with no injuries, to power outages in Nash and Edgecombe counties around 8:30 p.m. EDT.

The day never really closed. Before sunrise Saturday a new complex of storms was putting trees down across southeast Ohio and western West Virginia, with reports as late as 7:20 a.m. EDT, and 400 customers lost power near Elizabeth WV at 7 a.m. In Logan County OH, the Wilmington OH office's Flash Flood Warning, extended at 5:55 a.m. EDT Saturday, stated that local law enforcement had reported flash flooding after 3.5 to 4 inches of rain fell.

The Plains had their own, unrelated wind. The strongest measured gust in the country, 81 mph, hit 3 miles northeast of Aspermont TX at 4:59 p.m. CDT, with additional 70 to 72 mph gusts measured in the minutes before it. Overnight, a station near Guymon OK in the Oklahoma panhandle measured 77 mph at 12:50 a.m. CDT, and early Saturday morning gusts of 60 and 61 mph were measured in Holt County NE and near Dimock SD.

Hail was scarce and small. Seven reports all day, the largest a golf ball, 1.75 inches, 3 miles northwest of Parkersburg IA at 3:28 p.m. CDT, with ping pong ball hail in Madison and Orange counties in Virginia during the mid-afternoon.

Largest measured gusts, September 4 into early September 5:

Report counts for the day: 173 wind, 7 hail, 0 tornado. Wind reports by state: Virginia 66, North Carolina 32, West Virginia 31, Ohio 23, Indiana 5, Maryland 4, Kentucky 3, Iowa 2, and one each in Alabama, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Wisconsin. Hail reports: Virginia 4, Iowa 2, North Carolina 1.

Source: Storm Prediction Center preliminary storm reports for the 24 hours ending 8 a.m. EDT September 5. All counts and gusts are preliminary and subject to revision.

Today, officially

Hurricane Lowell and Hawaii

Lowell is the story of the weekend, and it is still days away. Per Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisory 37, issued 11 p.m. HST Friday, September 4, the eye of Hurricane Lowell was about 610 miles south-southwest of Honolulu HI and 625 miles south-southwest of Lihue HI, with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph measured by Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a central pressure of 925 mb. The advisory headline reads that Lowell "weakens slightly and is now a category 4 hurricane." It was moving west at 7 mph, and the advisory forecasts a gradual slowdown over the next day or so, followed by a sharp turn to the north or north-northeast on Sunday.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. The advisory states that "watches could be required for portions of the westernmost Hawaiian Islands on Saturday."

The Honolulu forecast discussion, issued 8:20 p.m. HST Friday, reads: "Hurricane Lowell is forecast to move close to Kauai County Monday night as a category 2 to 3 hurricane. Weather impacts such as high surf and heavy rain are forecast to extend hundreds of miles from the center of Hurricane Lowell, potentially impacting any of the islands." The same discussion notes that "any deviation eastward from its forecast track could bring more severe wind impacts especially to Kauai County," and that as of Friday night it was "currently too early for tropical watches and warnings tonight, but will be discussed and determined soon."

The advisory's stated land hazards: rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches for Kauai and the Big Island, with maximum totals exceeding 10 inches possible, 2 to 4 inches for Maui with isolated 8 inch totals possible, and 1 to 2 inches elsewhere, rain that "may produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain." Swells are "likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions during the next several days across many of the Hawaiian islands."

If you are in Hawaii, this weekend is the time to check supplies and plans, not Monday. Official preparedness guidance is at ready.gov, and the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency is at dod.hawaii.gov/hiema.

Advisory vitals, Lowell:

Source: CPHC Hurricane Lowell advisory 37 and NWS Honolulu forecast discussion, both issued the evening of September 4 HST.

Severe storms, Ohio Valley to the Carolinas

The Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 outlook, issued 7:54 a.m. CDT Saturday, carries a Slight Risk from portions of the Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Its summary reads: "Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging gusts are possible across portions of the Ohio Valley into southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas this afternoon and evening." The outlook tracks the same storm complex that was still producing tree damage in Ohio and West Virginia at daybreak, expecting it to continue southeastward across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic, with the highest chance of damaging gusts across eastern North Carolina. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are also possible over parts of the northern and central Plains today into tonight, per the same outlook.

The Raleigh forecast discussion, issued 8:07 a.m. EDT, leads with the other side of that coin: "Showers and thunderstorms and rain-cooled air this afternoon will provide localized relief from continued heat," with a Heat Advisory in effect for the southern Piedmont, Sandhills, and southern and central coastal plain.

The Weather Prediction Center's excessive rainfall outlook, issued 3:29 a.m. EDT, places a Slight Risk of rain exceeding flash flood guidance over central and eastern Virginia and the eastern Carolinas, the same corridor the storms are expected to work.

Heat in the middle of the country

Ten Extreme Heat Warnings from seven forecast offices cover parts of Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, and Kentucky this morning, including the St. Louis MO, Kansas City MO, and Topeka KS metros. The St. Louis product, issued 2:29 a.m. CDT, states heat index values up to 110; Paducah's, issued 12:39 a.m. CDT, states 105 to 110 for southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri; Lincoln IL's, issued 6:08 a.m. CDT, states up to 106 for central Illinois. Most of the warnings end at 7 or 8 p.m. CDT this evening, but the heat is not done everywhere: the Kansas City warning for east central Kansas and western Missouri and the Topeka warning both run through Tuesday evening, September 8, and Springfield MO's warning, which cites "multiple consecutive days" of heat index values up to 110, runs through 8 p.m. CDT Sunday. None of the products states a covered population figure.

Southeast Texas rivers

The long tail of Edouard keeps shrinking. Menard Creek near Rye TX, which was in moderate flooding earlier this week, is now in minor flooding per the Houston/Galveston warning extended at 9:38 p.m. CDT Friday, with that warning running until early Saturday afternoon. The Lake Charles office's warning, issued 8:09 p.m. CDT Friday, continues for Village Creek near Kountze TX until Sunday morning, for Pine Island Bayou near Sour Lake TX until early Tuesday, and for the Neches River at the saltwater barrier until Wednesday night. Six counties remain covered: Hardin, Liberty, Polk, Jefferson, Jasper, and Orange.

River warning vitals:

Source: NWS Houston/Galveston and Lake Charles Flood Warnings issued the evening of September 4.

The rest of the tropics

Two more hurricanes are up, both in the Pacific, both far from land, both weakening. Hurricane Karina, per CPHC advisory 36 issued 11 p.m. HST Friday, was about 825 miles east of Hilo HI with 75 mph winds, moving northwest at 8 mph and forecast to become post-tropical by Monday, no watches or warnings. Hurricane Marie, per NHC advisory 17 issued 2 a.m. PDT Saturday, was about 635 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California with 90 mph winds, moving northwest at 8 mph on a gradual weakening trend, no watches or warnings. The Atlantic has no active storms on the NHC board this morning.

Elsewhere

The Weather Prediction Center's Day 1 excessive rainfall outlook, issued 3:29 a.m. EDT and valid through Sunday morning, also carries Marginal Risk areas along the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida panhandle, over South Florida, across the Southwest into the southern High Plains and Nebraska, and over a patch of the upper Midwest. In New Mexico, a Flood Watch from the Albuquerque office, issued 9:10 p.m. MDT Friday, covers the South Central Mountains through 6 p.m. MDT this evening.

This is a morning summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials.

The rock's live forecast for the places in this story

• Honolulu HI
• Lihue HI
• Hilo HI
• Friendsville MD
• Parkersburg WV
• Elizabeth WV
• Hamden OH
• Lexington VA
• Elkton VA
• Crewe VA
• Elizabeth City NC
• North Wilkesboro NC
• Aspermont TX
• Guymon OK
• O'Neill NE
• Dimock SD
• Parkersburg IA
• Monona IA
• Rye TX
• Kountze TX
• Sour Lake TX
• St. Louis MO
• Kansas City MO
• Topeka KS

Key points

• Thursday was a wind day on both ends of the map: 384 preliminary wind reports nationwide, most of them trees and wires down from Pennsylvania and New York through Maryland and Virginia, plus a separate Montana episode that gusted to 83 mph near Great Falls MT.
• Southeast Texas rivers are under Flood Warnings across eight counties this morning, the water still working downstream after Edouard, which the Lake Charles forecast office says has dissipated.
• As of this morning's outlooks: a Slight Risk of severe storms from the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, Extreme Heat Warnings across six mid-Mississippi Valley states, and Hurricane Lowell passing well south of Hawaii with no coastal watches in effect.

Yesterday

The loudest weather in the country on Thursday was wind, and it came in two unrelated servings.

The eastern serving started with breakfast. Trees were coming down in Warren PA by 8:05 a.m. EDT on September 3, and for the next twelve hours the reports walked southeast: through western New York around Batavia NY mid-morning, down the spine of central Pennsylvania through midday, then across Maryland and northern Virginia through the early afternoon. Most of it was the same story told a few hundred times, a tree on a road, a tree on wires, a tree on a beltway ramp. Cockeysville MD lost a large uprooted tree at 2:44 p.m. EDT, and Bethesda MD had trees down on River Road at 1:37 p.m. EDT. The evening added a measured exclamation point in the Finger Lakes: a 76 mph gust near Seneca Falls NY at 8:40 p.m. EDT. Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland, and Virginia together accounted for 255 of the day's wind reports.

Montana was the other serving, and it had the day's biggest numbers. Between about 1:30 and 4:30 p.m. MDT, stations across the southwest and central part of the state measured gusts of 70 mph and higher: 83 mph five miles west-southwest of Great Falls MT, 80 mph at Highwood Bench MT and near Warm Springs MT, 77 mph near Choteau MT, and 73 mph in Helena MT itself. Spotters around Butte MT reported large mature trees down, including at a cemetery and a golf course.

Hail was a footnote by comparison. The largest stones were 2 inches, reported at Birch Run MI at 5:38 p.m. EDT and near Capac MI about an hour later. The national log's only tornado-type entry was a single preliminary report near Serenada TX at 4:25 p.m. CDT, which the Austin/San Antonio office logged as pictures and videos of a possible landspout or dust devil.

Largest measured gusts, September 3:

Report counts for the day: 384 wind, 13 hail, 1 tornado-type. By state, wind reports led with Pennsylvania 101, New York 94, Montana 89, Virginia 33, Maryland 27, North Carolina 12, Michigan 11, Ohio 9.

Source: Storm Prediction Center preliminary storm reports for the 24 hours ending 8 a.m. EDT September 4. All counts and gusts are preliminary and subject to revision.

Today, officially

Southeast Texas rivers

The rain from Edouard has stopped falling, but the water is still moving. As of this morning, Flood Warnings cover eight southeast Texas counties: Hardin, Jefferson, Orange, Jasper, Liberty, Polk, Angelina, and Trinity. Menard Creek near Rye TX is in moderate flooding now, per the Houston/Galveston warning continued at 11:26 p.m. CDT Thursday. Village Creek near Kountze TX is forecast to reach moderate flooding, Pine Island Bayou near Sour Lake TX is rising, and the Neches River is forecast for minor flooding both near Diboll TX and down at the saltwater barrier. A separate small-stream Flood Warning for Hardin and northwestern Jefferson counties, issued 4:29 p.m. CDT Thursday, stated plainly that numerous roads remain closed due to flooding.

The Lake Charles forecast discussion, issued 12:13 a.m. CDT Friday, reads: "While Edouard has finally dissipated tonight, a moisture rich atmosphere will remain over the region through the weekend resulting in more showers and storms along with warm and humid conditions." It adds that heavy downpours "could lead to areas of flash flooding especially over already rain sodden ground post-Edouard," and a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall covers the area both today and Saturday per the Weather Prediction Center outlook issued 2:52 a.m. EDT.

River warning vitals:

Source: NWS Houston/Galveston, Lake Charles, and Shreveport Flood Warnings issued the evening of September 3.

Severe storm risk, Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic

The Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 outlook, issued 12:37 a.m. CDT Friday, carries a Slight Risk "in a corridor across the southern Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic," with damaging wind gusts the main concern from organized storm clusters, plus more scattered strong storms east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon and evening. This is the same frontal zone that made Thursday noisy, sagging slowly south.

The Cleveland forecast discussion, issued 3:56 a.m. EDT, reads: "Confidence is increasing for another round of severe storms to move west to east through the area late this morning and afternoon. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern." That office puts its window roughly between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m., aimed more at northwest and north-central Ohio than the areas hit Thursday.

Heat in the middle of the country

Ten Extreme Heat Warnings from six forecast offices cover parts of Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky as of early this morning, taking in the St. Louis MO, Kansas City MO, and Topeka KS metros. The St. Louis product, issued 3:26 a.m. CDT, states heat index values up to 107; the Kansas City product, issued 4:18 a.m. CDT, states up to 105. Several of the warnings run through 8 p.m. Saturday, and the Kansas City and Topeka warnings for the western zones run through 8 p.m. Tuesday, September 8. None of the products states a covered population figure.

The tropics

Three hurricanes are active, all in the Pacific, and none carries a coastal watch or warning. The one worth a homeowner's glance is Hurricane Lowell. Per Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisory 32, issued 11 p.m. HST Thursday, Lowell was a category 3 with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph and a 947 mb central pressure, about 555 miles south-southwest of Honolulu HI and 595 miles south of Lihue HI, moving west at 9 mph with a turn toward the northwest and north expected this weekend. The advisory's stated land hazard is surf: swells likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across many of the Hawaiian islands during the next several days. The advisory headline asks interests in the Hawaiian Islands to continue monitoring; the next complete advisory was scheduled for 5 a.m. HST.

Hurricanes Karina (advisory 32) and Marie (advisory 13), both per NHC advisories issued 5 a.m. EDT Friday, are over open eastern Pacific water, far from land, with no watches or warnings. The Atlantic has no active storms on the NHC board this morning.

Elsewhere

The Weather Prediction Center's excessive rainfall outlook, issued 2:52 a.m. EDT and valid through Saturday morning, places a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance over parts of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, with Marginal Risk areas including southeast Texas, South Florida, and a broad stripe from the Great Lakes to the Carolinas. Flash Flood Watches from the Boise and Pocatello offices cover several Idaho mountain zones and Baker County OR into this evening.

This is a morning summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials.

The rock's live forecast for the places in this story

• Warren PA
• Batavia NY
• Seneca Falls NY
• Bethesda MD
• Cockeysville MD
• Great Falls MT
• Helena MT
• Butte MT
• Choteau MT
• Birch Run MI
• Capac MI
• Serenada TX
• Rye TX
• Kountze TX
• Sour Lake TX
• Diboll TX
• St. Louis MO
• Kansas City MO
• Topeka KS
• Honolulu HI
• Lihue HI

Key points

• Wednesday put 334 preliminary wind reports on the board across two separate theaters: New York led all states with 94 and Montana ran second with 85, including a measured 83 mph gust at the Great Falls airport and trees dropped onto houses across the Finger Lakes.
• The Weather Prediction Center issued its last advisory on Edouard's remnants at 4 a.m. CDT Thursday, near Dallas; gauges northwest of Beaumont have already measured over 17 inches of rain, 2 to 4 more inches are possible over northeast Texas today, and flood warnings covered a dozen east Texas counties Thursday morning.
• Three Pacific hurricanes, Lowell at category 4 south of Hawaii, Karina at category 3, and Marie newly a hurricane, carry no coastal watches or warnings; Lowell's swell is expected to bring life-threatening surf to the Hawaiian Islands over the next several days.

The rock's morning read on what the country's weather did yesterday, and what is officially expected today. Sources are the wire products themselves, cited as they read.

Yesterday: the wind ran wide

Wednesday worked both ends of the country. The storms in the East started early: county dispatch in Warren, Pennsylvania reported a tree down over South State Street at 8:05 a.m. EDT, and by 8:25 a.m. tree limbs had knocked out power to several hundred customers around Batavia, New York. That was only the opening act. Storms kept re-firing across New York and Pennsylvania through the afternoon and evening, and the day ended with New York holding 94 wind reports, the most of any state, and Pennsylvania 84. The Finger Lakes took the hardest evening hit. The New York State Mesonet station at Waterloo measured a 76 mph gust at 8:40 p.m. EDT, and the report log for Waterloo and Seneca Falls describes numerous trees and wires down, including trees onto houses. Trees landed on houses in Olcott, Amherst, and Webster too, and in Ischua down in Cattaraugus County. The southern end of the line reached Virginia by late afternoon, with multiple trees and power lines blocking roads in Orange County and a tree onto a house near New Canton in Buckingham County, and it finished in North Carolina, where Franklin County logged downed power lines around Louisburg into the evening.

Montana had its own windstorm entirely. Eighty-five reports came out of the state, and the numbers were the story: the ASOS at Great Falls International Airport measured 83 mph at 3:53 p.m. MDT, stations near Warm Springs and on the Highwood Bench both hit 80 mph, and the Helena airport gusted to 71 mph as the wind worked east across the state through the afternoon. A spotter in Chester reported several trees down and a power outage that lasted until around 6:15 p.m. MDT.

The hail was a footnote by comparison, twelve reports, the largest 2 inches at Birch Run and near Capac in Michigan's Thumb. The country produced exactly one tornado report: the log lists a landspout near Serenada in Williamson County, Texas at 4:25 p.m. CDT, and hedges its own entry with pictures and videos "of a possible landspout or dust devil." The rock respects a report that admits what it does not know.

The numbers

Report count for the 12Z September 2 to 12Z September 3 period: 334 wind, 12 hail, 1 tornado (the Williamson County, Texas landspout report). Wind reports by state: New York 94, Montana 85, Pennsylvania 84, Virginia 27, Maryland 20, North Carolina 12, Michigan 6, Ohio 3, one each Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota. Hail reports: Michigan 5, Pennsylvania 3, New York 2, one each Virginia and Montana.

Top measured gusts:

Largest hail:

Source: Storm Prediction Center storm reports for the 12Z September 2 to 12Z September 3 period. All reports are preliminary; SPC labels them so and this brief does too. Times are converted from UTC. The Timberville hail time was estimated via radar per the report remarks.

Yesterday: Edouard's rain kept falling

While the wind made noise elsewhere, Tropical Depression Edouard spent Wednesday doing exactly what the advisories said it would: raining on east Texas. The Weather Prediction Center's Storm Summary Number 3, issued 11 p.m. EDT Wednesday, put the depression over southeastern Texas with heavy rain and gusty winds still on the radar, and its preliminary storm total list tells the story plainly. The gauge at Little Pine Island Bayou at SH 787 had measured 17.75 inches since Monday morning. A RAWS station at Southern Rough read 16.53 inches, a citizen station at Warren 15.69, and Kountze 13.39. Woodville and Livingston sat near 8 to 9 inches, and Beaumont's southwest side near 7. The summary expected another 2 to 4 inches overnight, locally as much as 8, and flash flood warnings were in effect northeast of Houston and northwest of Beaumont as it went to press.

Storm totals, by the gauge

Source: WPC Storm Summary Number 3 for Edouard (ACUS45 KWBC), issued 11 p.m. EDT September 2. Totals are preliminary and run from 8 a.m. EDT August 31 through 10 p.m. EDT September 2.

Today, officially

Edouard signs off; the water has not

As of Advisory Number 12, issued 4 a.m. CDT Thursday by the Weather Prediction Center, the remnants of Edouard sat about 40 miles southeast of Dallas with 25 mph winds, drifting west-northwest at 5 mph toward dissipation within 24 hours. It is the last public advisory on the system that came ashore at Johnson Bayou on Monday. The rainfall language stays serious to the end: "Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible across northeast Texas Thursday. This will bring total rainfall amounts along the path of Edouard to 5 to 10 inches, with maximum totals up to 22 inches." The advisory adds that additional flash flooding is possible through Thursday and that "isolated moderate to major river flooding is expected."

The morning's warnings agree. As of Thursday morning, flood warnings from the Houston/Galveston, Shreveport, and Lake Charles offices covered twelve east Texas counties: Liberty, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, Angelina, Anderson, Cherokee, Houston, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, and Orange. Shreveport's river warnings run into Friday morning. Flood watches from Shreveport, Houston/Galveston, and Fort Worth hold through Thursday afternoon across deep east Texas. The WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall outlook, issued 4:05 a.m. EDT Thursday, keeps a Slight Risk over east Texas, with a second Slight Risk over southeast Arizona.

The Shreveport Area Forecast Discussion, issued 1 a.m. CDT Thursday, notes that in its area "the ground has been able to soak up the majority of the rainfall today, with minimal flooding impacts actually observed," and closes the chapter with a sentence the rock could have written: "Edouard exits the stage to the left, the ridge rebuilds, the thermometer remembers what summer is supposed to feel like, and the diurnal thunderstorm machine gradually cranks back up."

Official preparedness guidance lives at Ready.gov (https://www.ready.gov/), and the state emergency management agency is the Texas Division of Emergency Management (https://tdem.texas.gov/).

Final advisory vitals, per Advisory 12 (4 a.m. CDT September 3):

Behind Wednesday's storms: flood warnings from Lake Ontario to Delaware

The water bill for Wednesday's eastern storms came due overnight. As of Thursday morning, the State College office carried flood warnings across nine central Pennsylvania counties, Centre, Clinton, Clearfield, Huntingdon, Juniata, Mifflin, Perry, McKean, and Warren, plus a Flash Flood Warning issued 4:11 a.m. EDT for Dauphin, Lancaster, and Lebanon counties, and a Flood Watch across the central mountains through midnight tonight. Mount Holly issued a flood warning at 7:15 a.m. EDT covering the Philadelphia suburbs in Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties, New Castle County in Delaware, and Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Salem counties in New Jersey. To the north, Buffalo held flood warnings for Monroe and Orleans counties in New York, and Cleveland for Erie County, Pennsylvania. Most of the morning warnings expire before midday; the Monroe County, New York warning runs into Thursday evening.

Severe weather: Slight Risks, Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic and northern Plains

The Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 outlook, issued 12:53 a.m. CDT Thursday and valid through 7 a.m. CDT Friday, reads: "Scattered strong thunderstorm development is likely today through tonight, perhaps including a few organizing clusters, posing a risk for severe wind and hail across parts of the southern Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and portions of the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest." In the East, the outlook expects a stalled outflow boundary and front to focus renewed storms from southeastern Wisconsin across lower Michigan, northern Indiana, and Ohio toward the northern Mid-Atlantic, with strong downbursts the main concern and a note that wind probabilities could still be raised later. On the Plains, northern and eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota could see a few supercells this afternoon and evening, with large hail the leading threat.

The tropics: three hurricanes, zero watches

Per the advisories issued 9 UTC Thursday, none of the three Pacific hurricanes carries coastal watches or warnings:

Lowell's advisory says swells "are spreading northward and will affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands during the next several days," with life-threatening surf and rip current conditions likely, and expects Lowell to remain a major hurricane for the next several days. Karina has eased from Tuesday's 145 mph to category 3 and is forecast to weaken gradually while staying a hurricane a couple more days. Marie, a tropical storm on Wednesday, is now a hurricane and still strengthening; its swell reaches southwest Mexico and Baja California over the next few days and likely spreads to southern California over the weekend. The next advisories on all three come at 5 a.m. HST and 8 a.m. MST. Three hurricanes, not one watch among them; the ocean continues its loud work in empty rooms.

Otherwise

Extreme Heat Warnings were in effect Thursday morning from five forecast offices: Chicago, Quad Cities, Lincoln, St. Louis, and Paducah. Chicago's warning, issued 1:08 a.m. CDT for Cook County, expects heat index values of 100 to 105 and notes this is "the third day in a row with a forecast or observed maximum heat index over 100 degrees," with a cold front off Lake Michigan expected to end it this afternoon and evening. Another 54 heat advisories cover the mid Mississippi and Ohio valleys around that core; none of the products states a population figure, and the pattern breaks tonight. Separately, Bismarck issued a Flash Flood Warning at 6:18 a.m. CDT for parts of McHenry and Ward counties in North Dakota. No winter products of consequence.

---

This is a morning summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see https://www.weather.gov/ and your local officials.

The rock's live forecast for the places in this story

• Seneca Falls NY
• Waterloo NY
• Batavia NY
• Olcott NY
• Great Falls MT
• Helena MT
• Choteau MT
• Fort Benton MT
• Chester MT
• Birch Run MI
• Meadville PA
• Timberville VA
• Louisburg NC
• Kountze TX
• Woodville TX
• Livingston TX
• Beaumont TX
• Dallas TX
• Chicago IL
• Hilo HI

Key points

• Tropical Storm Edouard came ashore near Johnson Bayou, Louisiana at 2:20 p.m. CDT yesterday with 60 mph winds, short of hurricane strength; it is now a depression over east Texas, and today's story is the rain, with 4 to 8 inches forecast along its path and up to 12 possible.
• Yesterday was a loud severe weather day on two fronts: 137 preliminary wind reports and 35 hail reports nationwide, including a measured 98 mph gust in northeast Nebraska and a long evening of downed trees from Pennsylvania through New Jersey and Delaware.
• Two category 4 hurricanes, Karina and Lowell, are spinning in the Pacific with 145 mph winds each; neither carries coastal watches or warnings, though Lowell's swell is expected to reach Hawaii starting Wednesday.

The rock's morning read on what the country's weather did yesterday, and what is officially expected today. Sources are the wire products themselves, cited as they read.

Yesterday: Edouard came ashore

The wait ended Tuesday afternoon. At 2:20 p.m. CDT on September 1, radar out of Lake Charles and Houston put the center of Tropical Storm Edouard over the marsh at Johnson Bayou, Louisiana, just east of the Texas line. The National Hurricane Center's landfall update estimated maximum sustained winds at 60 mph and a central pressure of 996 mb. The near-hurricane the previous day's advisories had left room for never showed up; Edouard spent its morning holding at 50 mph, added a little strength in the final hours, and crossed the coast as a solid but ordinary tropical storm.

The wind did its loudest work right at the corner of the two states. The National Ocean Service station at Texas Point, Texas caught a sustained wind of 57 mph and a gust to 71 mph just before landfall, and Port Arthur gusted to 49 mph an hour later as the center passed close to the city. By 10 p.m. EDT, the Weather Prediction Center's first storm summary described a very compact storm crawling northwest at 7 mph, with its heaviest bands producing rain at 2 to 3 inches per hour. Overnight the center crossed into the Piney Woods of east Texas, and the Houston office estimated 6 to 8 inches had already fallen close to the core by 2 a.m. CDT.

Landfall, by the numbers

Source: NHC Tropical Cyclone Updates for Edouard issued 2 p.m., 2:25 p.m., and 3 p.m. CDT September 1, and WPC Storm Summary Number 1, issued 11 p.m. EDT September 1. The gust list is that summary's preliminary selection.

Yesterday: a 98 mph gust in Nebraska and a treefall evening in the East

While the Gulf Coast watched Edouard, the two Slight Risk areas from Monday's outlooks both produced. The louder number came from the Plains. A Nebraska Mesonet station near Fordyce, in Cedar County, measured a 98 mph wind gust at 8:32 p.m. CDT. Minutes earlier a tractor trailer was tipped onto its side near the Highway 12 and US 81 junction, and 12 inch tree limbs came down across the town of Wynot. The same storms threw large hail across the Nebraska and South Dakota border country: stones to 2.75 inches at Pickstown, South Dakota at 5:18 p.m. CDT, and baseball size hail at Niobrara, Nebraska at 7:44 p.m. CDT that broke a vehicle windshield. The night ended in Minnesota, where an AWOS station at the Mayo Helipad in Rochester gusted to 68 mph at 1:35 a.m. CDT with large trees down and power outages.

The East's version was quieter per report and much wider. From about 6:12 p.m. EDT, when county dispatch in Meadville, Pennsylvania began reporting multiple trees and power lines down, storms worked southeast across Pennsylvania through the evening: Berks, Chester, Carbon, Lehigh, and Bradford counties fill page after page of the report log with trees on wires and closed roads. After dark the line reached Delaware and South Jersey. New Castle County, Delaware logged multiple roads closed by downed trees around Wilmington and Newark, and Gloucester and Salem counties in New Jersey reported numerous trees and power lines down, with Route 49 fully closed at Salem. Pennsylvania alone accounted for 58 of the day's wind reports.

The numbers

Report count for the 12Z September 1 to 12Z September 2 period: 137 wind, 35 hail, 0 tornado. Wind reports by state: Pennsylvania 58, New Jersey 16, South Dakota 14, Nebraska 11, Delaware 11, Iowa 8, Minnesota 7, Wisconsin 6, New York 3, one each Texas, Idaho, California. Hail reports: Nebraska 21, South Dakota 9, Minnesota 3, one each Iowa and New Jersey.

Top measured gusts:

Largest hail:

Source: Storm Prediction Center storm reports for the 12Z September 1 to 12Z September 2 period. All reports are preliminary; SPC labels them so and this brief does too. Several gusts came from personal weather stations per the report remarks; times are converted from UTC.

Today, officially

Edouard inland: the rain is the story now

As of Advisory Number 8, issued 4 a.m. CDT Wednesday by the Weather Prediction Center, Tropical Depression Edouard sat about 30 miles south-southwest of Lufkin, Texas, drifting north-northwest at 5 mph with 35 mph winds. The advisory expects Edouard to dissipate Wednesday night. Its rainfall language is direct: "Total rainfall along Edouard's path is expected to range from 4 to 8 inches, with maximum totals up to 12 inches for parts of the Upper Texas Coast inland through east-central Texas. This rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, especially in low-lying and urban areas. Significant flash flooding is possible." A brief tornado or two remained possible through early Wednesday morning across parts of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas.

The warnings on the ground Wednesday morning matched that language. Between 4:46 and 6:04 a.m. CDT, the Lake Charles and Houston offices issued Flash Flood Warnings covering Polk, San Jacinto, Liberty, Montgomery, Hardin, Tyler, Chambers, and Jefferson counties in Texas. Flood Watches from four forecast offices run through Wednesday afternoon and evening across east Texas, from the Houston metro north and east through the Piney Woods into the Fort Worth and Shreveport forecast areas.

The Houston Area Forecast Discussion, issued 1:59 a.m. CDT Wednesday, reads it this way: "The primary threat through tonight is heavy rainfall," with the highest risk "generally north of I-10 and along and east of I-45," and a forecast "swath of 6-8 inch rainfall totals in a SE to NW orientation from Northern Liberty to Houston County through Thursday." That discussion also notes WPC had upgraded portions of the Piney Woods to a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall; the WPC Day 1 excessive rainfall outlook issued later, at 4:04 a.m. EDT and valid from 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, carries a Slight Risk over east Texas. The two products read differently and are reported here as they read.

Official preparedness guidance lives at Ready.gov (https://www.ready.gov/), and the state emergency management agencies are the Texas Division of Emergency Management (https://tdem.texas.gov/) and Louisiana GOHSEP (https://gohsep.la.gov/).

Advisory vitals, per Advisory 8 (4 a.m. CDT September 2):

Severe weather: Slight Risks east and west

The Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 outlook, issued 12:57 a.m. CDT Wednesday and valid through 7 a.m. CDT Thursday, carries two Slight Risk areas. As the summary reads: "Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat, though some large hail and a few tornadoes may also occur. Scattered severe gusts and more sporadic occurrences of large hail appear possible from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into night." In the East, the outlook describes a complex day of repeated storm rounds, with a possible greater tornado risk in the evening across southern New York and central Pennsylvania, "contingent upon air mass recovery" behind the morning storms. In Montana, the outlook expects a fast-moving line by late afternoon with scattered severe gusts likely and peak intensity of 65 to 80 mph possible.

The tropics: two category 4s, both far from land

Per the advisories issued 9 UTC Wednesday, none of the three Pacific storms carries coastal watches or warnings:

Lowell's advisory headline reads, "LOWELL FORECAST TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS," and its hazards section says swells "are likely to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands beginning on Wednesday" with life-threatening surf and rip current conditions likely. Marie is forecast to become a hurricane later today, with its swell reaching southwest Mexico and Baja California in the coming days and likely spreading to southern California over the weekend. Two 145 mph storms on the same map and not one watch between them: the ocean is doing loud things in empty rooms, and the rock approves.

Otherwise

Extreme Heat Warnings were in effect Wednesday morning from the Quad Cities and Paducah forecast offices, and heat advisories covered a broad stretch of the mid Mississippi and Ohio valleys, in ordinary early-September numbers and below this brief's bar for news. No winter products of consequence.

---

This is a morning summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see https://www.weather.gov/ and your local officials.

The rock's live forecast for the places in this story

• Johnson Bayou LA
• Port Arthur TX
• Beaumont TX
• Cameron LA
• Lufkin TX
• Houston TX
• Fordyce NE
• Wynot NE
• Niobrara NE
• Pickstown SD
• Rochester MN
• Meadville PA
• Wilmington DE
• Salem NJ
• Hilo HI

Key points

• Tropical Storm Edouard is forecast to strengthen, possibly to near hurricane strength, before reaching the northwest Gulf Coast later today; a Storm Surge Warning, a Hurricane Watch, and Tropical Storm Warnings cover the Texas and Louisiana coast per National Hurricane Center Advisory 4.
• Yesterday was one of the quietest severe weather days of the summer: 13 preliminary wind reports and one hail report nationwide, no tornadoes.
• The Storm Prediction Center carries a Slight Risk today from the central and northern Plains across the Midwest into Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey.

The rock's morning read on what the country's weather did yesterday, and what is officially expected today. Sources are the wire products themselves, cited as they read.

Yesterday: the depression got a name

The weather story of Monday, August 31 happened over water. At 7 p.m. CDT, the National Hurricane Center's Intermediate Advisory 2A announced that Tropical Depression Five had strengthened into Tropical Storm Edouard, about 140 miles southeast of Cameron, Louisiana. Three hours later, Advisory 3 at 10 p.m. CDT raised the stakes on the coast: a Storm Surge Warning from High Island, Texas to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line, and a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the northwest Gulf Coast. The evening on land was the quiet before it, spent watching radar out of Lake Charles.

The rest of the country barely made a sound. Thirteen wind reports and one hail report came in all day, and no tornadoes anywhere. Most of the wind was monsoon outflow working the Four Corners and the High Plains. The one report with real damage behind it came from La Paz County, Arizona, where photos showed power poles down at Avenue 42E about six miles southeast of Bouse around 3 p.m. MST. The day's top measured gust was 77 mph at a personal weather station southeast of Lamar, Colorado at 6:30 p.m. MDT. The country's only hail fell at Kershaw-Ryan State Park near Caliente, Nevada: one-inch stones at 11:10 a.m. PDT.

The numbers

Report count for the day: 13 wind, 1 hail, 0 tornado. Reports ran from Juab County, Utah and La Paz County, Arizona through Alamosa, Prowers, Bent, Kiowa, and Cheyenne counties in Colorado, Cheyenne County in Kansas, Rio Arriba and Bernalillo counties in New Mexico, and Lincoln County, Nevada.

Top measured gusts, August 31:

Source: Storm Prediction Center storm reports for the 12Z August 31 to 12Z September 1 period. All reports are preliminary; SPC labels them so and this brief does too. The Lamar gusts came from a personal weather station, per the report remarks; times are converted from UTC.

Today, officially

Edouard, landfall day

As of National Hurricane Center Advisory Number 4, issued 4 a.m. CDT Tuesday, September 1, the center of Tropical Storm Edouard sat about 65 miles south-southeast of Cameron, Louisiana and 90 miles southeast of Port Arthur, Texas, moving west-northwest at 8 mph with top sustained winds of 40 mph. The advisory's headline reads, "Edouard poised to significantly strengthen before reaching the northwest Gulf Coast later today." In its words: "Significant strengthening is forecast today and Edouard could approach hurricane strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf coast later today," and "the center of Edouard is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast within the warning area later today and move inland over southeast Texas tonight."

The watch and warning footprint, per that advisory:

- A Storm Surge Warning from High Island, Texas to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line, Louisiana.

- A Hurricane Watch from High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana.

- A Tropical Storm Warning from Port Bolivar, Texas to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish line, Louisiana.

On land, per NWS zone alerts active early Tuesday, the Tropical Storm Warning covered the Bolivar Peninsula, Chambers, Southern Liberty, Upper and Lower Jefferson, Orange, Hardin, Southern Jasper, and Southern Newton in Texas, and West Cameron, East Cameron, and Lower Vermilion in Louisiana. The Storm Surge Warning zones were Lower Jefferson County, Texas and West and East Cameron parishes, Louisiana; the Hurricane Watch zones were Lower Jefferson County and West Cameron Parish. A Flood Watch runs through 7 a.m. CDT Wednesday for southeast Texas counties including Harris, Galveston, Fort Bend, Brazoria, Montgomery, Liberty, Chambers, Walker, San Jacinto, Polk, Tyler, Hardin, Jasper, Newton, Jefferson, and Orange.

The Lake Charles Area Forecast Discussion, issued 1:05 a.m. CDT Tuesday, reads the landfall this way: the storm is "tracking toward Southeast Texas for a landfall near Sabine, TX by this afternoon," and "a hurricane watch has been added to Jefferson county and western Cameron Parish where the greatest wind threat will be." On the rain: "Heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding of urban areas will be possible around where the center of the low moves."

If you live in the footprint, official preparedness guidance lives at Ready.gov (https://www.ready.gov/), and the state emergency management agencies are the Texas Division of Emergency Management (https://tdem.texas.gov/) and Louisiana GOHSEP (https://gohsep.la.gov/).

Advisory vitals, per NHC Advisory 4 (4 a.m. CDT September 1):

The companion forecast discussion, same issue time, puts the expected landfall intensity at 55 knots and calls the intensity forecast "problematic," noting 31 C sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear in the storm's path. Storm page: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml

Severe weather: a Slight Risk from the Plains to New Jersey

The Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 outlook, issued 1:03 a.m. CDT Tuesday and valid through 7 a.m. CDT Wednesday, carries a Slight Risk in two areas. As the summary reads: "Scattered strong to severe storms are possible over the central Plains and Midwest, as well as parts of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey." In the East, the outlook expects a mix of supercells and line segments across southern New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey through the afternoon, with damaging gusts and isolated hail the most likely hazards and, near the southern Hudson Valley, enough low-level shear that "a couple of tornadoes" are possible with the stronger storms. On the Plains, supercells along a stalled front over Nebraska and South Dakota could produce hail over two inches, damaging gusts, and "a tornado or two," with a storm cluster possibly running the front into eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota through the evening.

Excessive rainfall

The Weather Prediction Center's Day 1 excessive rainfall outlook, issued 4:16 a.m. EDT Tuesday and valid through 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, puts a Slight Risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance over southeast Texas, the same ground Edouard's center crosses. Marginal Risk areas cover parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic (the same air the severe risk works), the Florida peninsula, a broader piece of Texas and Louisiana, and the monsoon country of the Southwest.

The rest of the tropics

Three more storms, all in the Pacific, none with coastal watches or warnings as of the advisories issued 9 UTC Tuesday:

Marie is new, named on its first advisory at 2 a.m. MST Tuesday, well offshore of southwest Mexico. The Lowell advisory headline reads, "LOWELL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY." Hilo stays a name on that map, so the rock keeps reading the advisories.

Otherwise

Heat advisories stretched across the Midwest on Tuesday morning, from Kansas and Missouri through Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, in ordinary early-September numbers and below this brief's bar for news. No winter products of consequence, no widespread flood warnings.

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This is a morning summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see https://www.weather.gov/ and your local officials.

The rock's live forecast for the places in this story

• Port Arthur TX
• Cameron LA
• High Island TX
• Morgan City LA
• Lamar CO
• Bouse AZ
• Caliente NV
• Hilo HI

Key points

• A 112-report thunderstorm wind day swept the northern Plains Sunday, topped by a preliminary 100 mph gust at Buffalo, South Dakota.
• Tropical Depression Five carries a Tropical Storm Warning for the Texas and Louisiana coast, per the National Hurricane Center advisory.
• Monsoon moisture keeps flash flood concerns alive across southern Utah and Arizona.

The rock's morning read on what the country's weather did yesterday, and what is officially expected today. Sources are the wire products themselves, cited as they read.

Yesterday: the wind crossed the shortgrass

Sunday afternoon, August 30, a long line of thunderstorm wind ran from southeast Montana across the far corner of Wyoming into northwest South Dakota and southwest North Dakota. It started quietly, with gusts in the 60s along I-80 in Wyoming and at Montana mesonet stations through the early afternoon. Then it found Harding County, South Dakota. At 3:31 p.m. MDT a station one mile north of Buffalo measured a 100 mph gust. That number is the story of the day.

Buffalo took it hard by the reports that came in afterward: significant tree damage, shingles blown off house roofs, some building damage from falling trees, and a few trees uprooted. The wind kept working northeast through the evening. In Sturgis, trees and large limbs came down, including the top half of a large evergreen snapped off. Across the state line in Hettinger, North Dakota, mature pine trees were uprooted in town and law enforcement reported a downed powerline near the high school football field. East of there, near Haynes, a ham radio operator relayed a photo of a house with its metal roof partially peeled back.

For all that wind, the day produced no tornado reports, and exactly one hail report in the whole country: quarter-sized stones at Big Water, Utah, at 4:33 p.m. MDT, in the same monsoon air that matters again today.

The numbers

Top measured gusts, August 30 (all times MDT):

Report count for the day: 112 wind, 1 hail, 0 tornado. Reports ran from Carbon County, Wyoming and Garfield County, Montana through Harding, Butte, Meade, Perkins, Lawrence, and Pennington counties in South Dakota into Adams, Bowman, and Mountrail counties in North Dakota.

Source: Storm Prediction Center storm reports for the 12Z August 30 to 12Z August 31 period. All reports are preliminary; SPC labels them so and this brief does too. The Hettinger gust was measured at 10 meters, with 56 mph observed at the surface, per the report remark.

Today, officially

Tropical Depression Five, aimed at the upper Texas coast

A newly formed depression sat over the northwest Gulf on Monday, and the products stacked up along the coast from Texas to Louisiana through the day. As of National Hurricane Center Advisory Number 2, issued 4 p.m. CDT Monday, August 31, the center sat about 105 miles south of Morgan City, Louisiana, drifting west-northwest at 6 mph with top sustained winds of 35 mph. The advisory expects it to become a tropical storm Monday evening. In the advisory's words, "the center of the system is predicted to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast within the warning area on Tuesday and move inland over southeast Texas on Tuesday night."

The watch and warning footprint, per that advisory:

- A Tropical Storm Warning from Port Bolivar, Texas to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish line, Louisiana. This advisory extended the warning eastward to that parish line.

- A new Storm Surge Watch from High Island, Texas to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line, Louisiana.

On land, per NWS zone alerts active Monday evening, the warning covered the Bolivar Peninsula and Chambers County in Texas and Lower Jefferson, West Cameron, and East Cameron parishes in Louisiana. The rain is the larger concern in the local offices' reading. Flood Watches from NWS Houston/Galveston (through 4 a.m. CDT Tuesday) and NWS Lake Charles (through 10:15 a.m. CDT Tuesday) covered counties including Harris, Galveston, Chambers, Montgomery, Liberty, Polk, San Jacinto, Tyler, Hardin, Jefferson, and Orange.

The Lake Charles Area Forecast Discussion, issued 2:13 p.m. CDT Monday, put it plainly: "The main story over the next few days will be TD5 moving across the northwest Gulf and toward the southwest Louisiana/southeast Texas coast today and inland on Tuesday." And on the stakes: "Heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding of urban areas will be possible around where the center of the low moves." The same discussion notes, "Wind and surge impacts from the disturbance are expected to be minor at this time."

If you live in the footprint, official preparedness guidance lives at Ready.gov (https://www.ready.gov/), and the state emergency management agencies are the Texas Division of Emergency Management (https://tdem.texas.gov/) and Louisiana GOHSEP (https://gohsep.la.gov/).

Advisory vitals, per NHC Advisory 2 (4 p.m. CDT August 31):

Storm page: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml

Severe weather: a Marginal day

The Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 outlook, updated 2:28 p.m. CDT Monday and valid through 7 a.m. CDT Tuesday, carries nothing above a Marginal Risk. As the outlook summary reads: "Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into western New York, the central Plains, and lower Colorado River Valley into the Great Basin. Severe hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats."

The Southwest monsoon, still busy

The Weather Prediction Center's Day 1 excessive rainfall outlook, issued 11:51 a.m. EDT Monday and valid through 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday, includes a Moderate Risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance whose boundary points sit in southern Utah and northern Arizona, with a broader Slight Risk around it. The local offices' own products name the ground: Flood Watches were in effect Monday from NWS Salt Lake City (zones including Southwest Utah, Lower Washington County, and Zion National Park, through 9 p.m. MDT), NWS Flagstaff (Kaibab Plateau, Grand Canyon Country, Marble and Glen Canyons, through midnight MST), NWS Phoenix, NWS Las Vegas, and NWS Grand Junction. Yesterday's lone hail report at Big Water, Utah fell in this same regime.

The rest of the tropics

Two more systems, both far from land, both without coastal watches or warnings as of the 11 a.m. HST Monday advisories:

The Lowell advisory headline reads, "LOWELL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO." Hilo is a name on that map, so the rock will keep reading the advisories.

Otherwise

Quiet, in the way late August is quiet. Heat advisories dotted the map Monday in ordinary summer numbers, below this brief's bar for news. No winter products of consequence, no widespread flood warnings outside the areas above.

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This is a morning summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see https://www.weather.gov/ and your local officials.