THE WEATHER BEAT · OCT 18

Hurricane Trudy runs along Mexico's west coast at 105 mph, with rapid weakening forecast from tonight

Trudy strengthened to 105 mph overnight and keeps a Hurricane Warning from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. NHC expects it to pull away tonight and fall.

By the Weather Rock October 18, 2026, 1:52 p.m. · 6 min read

GOES satellite view of the event region — Hurricane Trudy off the west coast of Mexico at 1500 UTC on 18 October 2026. Image: NOAA GOES-East GeoColor via NASA GIBS, 2026-10-18 15:00Z.

Key points

At 5 a.m. MST Sunday, Hurricane Trudy had 105 mph winds. It was about 150 miles west of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving northwest at 10 mph along the coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The Hurricane Warning still covers the coast from Manzanillo north to Cabo Corrientes. Mexico has dropped every watch and warning south of Manzanillo, and Tropical Storm Warnings stay up from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas and for Las Islas Marias.
NHC still forecasts 4 to 8 inches of rain on the coast of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with isolated totals near 12 inches. It expects Trudy to weaken rapidly from tonight and to be gone in three or four days.

Yesterday

Trudy got a little stronger overnight. In NHC's 2 a.m. MST discussion, the eye showed up more clearly on satellite and the deep thunderstorms had organized better, mostly on the west side of the storm. NHC raised the intensity to 90 knots, which matched the Dvorak satellite estimate from its own analysis branch. Twelve hours earlier the storm was at 100 mph and 976 mb. By the 5 a.m. advisory it was at 105 mph and 970 mb.

Trudy also turned out to be a bit smaller than the forecasters had thought. A satellite wind pass caught the east side of the storm and pointed to a tighter wind field, so NHC trimmed its wind radii. Tropical-storm-force winds now reach 105 miles from the center, down from 140 miles in Saturday evening's advisory. NHC said the outer rainbands were already crossing southwestern and west-central Mexico, "likely producing heavy rains and strong winds."

Hurricane Trudy, NHC Intermediate Advisory 20A, 5 a.m. MST Sun Oct 18
Position	18.9N 106.6W
Distance	about 150 mi W of Manzanillo, 120 mi SSW of Cabo Corrientes
Maximum winds	105 mph, Category 2
Pressure	970 mb (28.65 in)
Motion	northwest (320 degrees) at 10 mph
Hurricane-force winds	out to 30 miles from the center
Tropical-storm-force winds	out to 105 miles from the center
Next complete advisory	8 a.m. MST

Change since Saturday evening	Advisory 18A, 6 p.m. CST Sat	Advisory 20A, 5 a.m. MST Sun
Maximum winds	100 mph	105 mph
Pressure	976 mb	970 mb
Hurricane-force radius	35 mi	30 mi
Tropical-storm-force radius	140 mi	105 mi
Coast south of Manzanillo	Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning	all discontinued

*Source: NWS National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Trudy Intermediate Advisory 20A (5 a.m. MST, 1200 UTC Oct 18), Discussion 20 (2 a.m. MST, 0900 UTC Oct 18), and Intermediate Advisory 18A (6 p.m. CST Oct 17). NHC moved Trudy's advisories from Central to Mountain time overnight. MST is UTC minus 7; CST is UTC minus 6.*

Today, officially

The hurricane is running parallel to the coast, so the hurricane zone stays where it was. The Hurricane Warning runs from Manzanillo north to Cabo Corrientes. NHC says hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are likely there this morning. North of Cabo Corrientes, tropical storm conditions are expected on the mainland as far as San Blas this morning, and on Las Islas Marias this afternoon.

Rain is still the widest hazard. NHC forecasts 4 to 8 inches through the weekend along and near the coast of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco, with isolated totals near 12 inches. It says that rain may cause flooding and mudslides, mostly on steep ground. The outer bands could bring 2 to 4 inches to the Guerrero and Nayarit coasts, with isolated totals near 6 inches. Where the wind blows onshore inside the warning areas, NHC expects storm surge and damaging waves. Swells will keep surf and rip currents rough along the coast for the next few days.

Then the storm gets a hostile neighborhood. The 2 a.m. discussion says stronger southwesterly wind shear and dry, stable air should start weakening Trudy later today, and "the weakening is expected to be rapid." Tonight the center should begin pulling away from the coast, then crawl south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday. NHC now has Trudy as a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon, about a day sooner than Saturday's forecast. It adds that "it would not be surprising if both of these occurred sooner than predicted," meaning the remnant low and the storm's end.

NHC forecast, Discussion 20 (UTC)	Position	Winds
Sun Oct 18, 1800Z	19.5N 106.9W	105 mph
Mon Oct 19, 0600Z	20.2N 107.5W	80 mph
Mon Oct 19, 1800Z	20.4N 107.9W	65 mph
Tue Oct 20, 0600Z	20.7N 108.5W	45 mph
Tue Oct 20, 1800Z	21.1N 109.2W	35 mph, remnant low
Wed Oct 21, 0600Z	21.6N 109.7W	30 mph, remnant low
Thu Oct 22, 0600Z	dissipated

Product, NHC	Area	Status at 5 a.m. MST
Hurricane Warning	Manzanillo north to Cabo Corrientes	hurricane conditions likely this morning
Tropical Storm Warning	north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas	tropical storm conditions expected this morning
Tropical Storm Warning	Las Islas Marias	tropical storm conditions expected this afternoon

*All figures are as NHC states them. NHC tells people in the area to follow their national weather service, which for this coast is Mexico's.*

This is a morning summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials. National Hurricane Center: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/