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THE WEATHER BEAT · OCT 18

Winter Storm Watches for Interior Alaska: up to 30 inches possible in the Eastern Alaska Range, 4 to 8 in Fairbanks

NWS Fairbanks says a Gulf of Alaska low with an atmospheric river could bring heavy snow Monday to Wednesday, deepest in the Eastern Alaska Range.

Delta Junction, Alaska, bridge over the Gerstle River
A bridge over the Gerstle River near Delta Junction, Alaska, photographed on 29 August 2017. Photo: Diego Delso, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. This crop carries the same licence.

Key points

  • NWS Fairbanks put much of Interior Alaska under Winter Storm Watches at 6:06 a.m. AKDT Sunday. Fairbanks, Nenana and Delta Junction could get 4 to 8 inches or more of snow between Monday and Wednesday afternoon.
  • The heaviest totals are possible in the Eastern Alaska Range: 18 to 30 inches above 2,500 feet and 12 to 18 inches below it, with gusts to 40 mph and travel "very difficult to impossible," the watch says.
  • Fairbanks says a new low in the Gulf of Alaska, carrying an atmospheric river, will drive the snow. Separately, NWS Juneau expects 2 to 4 inches of rain over Juneau and Gustavus on Tuesday.

Yesterday

A cold front crossed the Interior on Saturday night and was still leaving the state on Sunday morning. NWS Fairbanks wrote at 6:39 a.m. AKDT Sunday that scattered snow showers and flurries would end behind it, leaving the Interior cooler and drier for a day. Down in the Panhandle, NWS Juneau wrote Saturday afternoon that on Friday a storm had already brought the Salmon River, Jordan Creek and Montana Creek near or into minor flood stage.

Today, officially

The quiet won't last long. In its Sunday morning discussion, NWS Fairbanks describes the setup as "the fall of dominoes." A low in the Bering Sea heads for the mainland and helps a new low grow in the Gulf of Alaska. That second low "will be accompanied with an atmospheric river," which the office says will bring heavy snow to the Eastern Alaska Range and moderate to heavy snow to the Central and Eastern Interior from Monday through Wednesday afternoon.

Wind arrives before the snow. Fairbanks expects southerly gusts of 50 to 60 mph in the Alaska Range passes early Monday, peaking at Isabel Pass, and has a Wind Advisory up there. Snow should begin south of the range Monday afternoon and then spread north. In Fairbanks the watch text expects a round of light snow Monday afternoon and night, possibly mixed briefly with rain, and then heavier snow building through Tuesday into Wednesday. It says the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes could be affected.

The deepest snow is possible in the mountains. Above 2,500 feet in the Eastern Alaska Range the watch calls for 18 to 30 inches, and more above pass level. Between Tanacross and Dot Lake, locally 12 to 18 inches is possible. To the south, NWS Anchorage issued a Winter Weather Advisory for 4 to 8 inches in the Northern Copper Valley, which includes Paxson and the eastern Denali Highway.

The Panhandle gets rain instead. NWS Juneau expects a strong storm over the northern Panhandle from Monday night through Tuesday, with 2 to 4 inches over about 36 hours for Juneau and Gustavus. It says the impacts could look like Friday's on the small creeks, and that the totals "will likely change as the event moves closer." Juneau's outlook does not say this is the same storm Fairbanks describes, so it is reported here on its own.

Winter Storm Watch, NWS Fairbanks, 6:06 a.m. AKDT Sun Oct 18Snow possibleGustsWhen
Eastern Alaska Range, above 2,500 ft18 to 30 in, more above pass level40 mphMon morning to late Wed night
Eastern Alaska Range, below 2,500 ft12 to 18 in40 mphMon morning to late Wed night
Denali Borough8 to 12 in, more above pass level40 mphMon afternoon to Wed afternoon
Delta Junction, Fortymile Country, Upper Tanana Valley6 to 12 in; 12 to 18 in Tanacross to Dot Lake; 2 to 5 in Northway to the Alcan Border35 mphMon evening to Wed afternoon
Upper Chena River Valley, White Mountains, Eagle Summit5 to 10 in35 mph, higher elevationsTue morning to Wed afternoon
Fairbanks North Star Borough and Nenana4 to 8 inTue morning to Wed afternoon
Yukon Flats4 to 8 inTue morning to Wed afternoon
Other productsOffice, issuedFigures
Winter Weather Advisory, Northern Copper ValleyNWS Anchorage, 4:54 a.m. AKDT Sun4 to 8 in, 4 a.m. Mon to 4 p.m. Tue
Hydrologic Outlook, Juneau and Glacier BayNWS Juneau, 2:08 p.m. AKDT Sat2 to 4 in of rain over 36 hours, Mon night to Tue
Area Forecast DiscussionNWS Fairbanks, 6:39 a.m. AKDT Sungusts 50 to 60 mph in Alaska Range passes early Mon

*Source: NWS Fairbanks Winter Storm Watches and Area Forecast Discussion (Oct 18), NWS Anchorage Winter Weather Advisory (Oct 18), NWS Juneau Hydrologic Outlook (Oct 17). A watch means heavy snow is possible, not yet expected; the totals above are the watch's own "possible" ranges.*

This is a morning summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials. NWS Fairbanks: https://www.weather.gov/afg/

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