THE WEATHER BEAT · OCT 8

Isaias reaches 100 mph with the season's first eye as Montgomery and inland Walton County move under warnings

Isaias reached 100 mph Thursday afternoon. By evening, warnings had reached central Alabama and inland Walton County, Florida, and the core rain forecast.

By the Weather Rock October 8, 2026, 8:42 p.m. · 9 min read ShareCopy link

Isaias Thursday evening: 100 mph, and the first eye of the season

Isaias kept strengthening through Thursday afternoon. At 4 p.m. CDT the Center raised the winds from 85 mph to 100 mph. The surface winds measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft's tail radar supported the increase, even though, as the discussion noted, the pressure had not dropped yet and the flight-level winds had not risen. The same discussion recorded something new: "this is the first eye noted on satellite pictures in the Atlantic basin during the 2026 Hurricane Season."

The storm also made the turn the Center had forecast. It is now heading northeast, and a turn to the north is expected Friday. The Center called its intensity forecast "somewhat problematic." The hurricane will cross warm Gulf water tonight, with a warm eddy along the track, so the forecast brings it to 110 mph by 1 a.m. CDT Friday. By Friday afternoon, stronger shear should knock the peak down to about 100 mph before landfall. The Center's summary line has not changed: "Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall."

The 4 p.m. and 7 p.m. advisories changed no coastal watch or warning. The Hurricane Warning still runs from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida. The Storm Surge Warning runs from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River, and the forecast still calls for 5 to 7 feet from Ocean Springs to Indian Pass and in Mobile Bay. The hurricane-force winds reach 15 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds reach 125 miles.

*Sources: National Hurricane Center Isaias Intermediate Advisory 8A (1 p.m. CDT), Advisory 9 and Discussion 9 (4 p.m. CDT), Intermediate Advisory 9A (7 p.m. CDT Thu). Forecast times are converted from UTC. These are forecasts, not measurements.*

Inland: watches become warnings

This afternoon's story ended with the inland offices putting up watches. By early evening some of them were warnings.

- Birmingham's 4:15 p.m. CDT statement upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for Autauga, Barbour, Bullock, Dallas, Elmore, Lowndes, Macon, Marengo, Montgomery and Pike counties. Nineteen more counties, including Jefferson (Birmingham) and Tuscaloosa, stay under the watch. By 7:18 p.m. the office was calling for gusts "as high as 50 to 60+ mph late Friday night through Saturday" and warned of "the potential for widespread downed trees and power lines." At 1:07 p.m. it had said 40 to 50 mph with isolated 60.

- Tallahassee's 5:35 p.m. EDT statement upgraded Central and North Walton County, Florida, to a Hurricane Warning, which carries the warning inland from the coast.

- Jackson, Mississippi, issued a Tropical Storm Watch at 4:18 p.m. CDT for Clarke, Forrest, Jasper, Jones, Kemper, Lauderdale, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee and Winston counties. Its statement expects landfall "along the Florida Panhandle late Friday evening into early Saturday morning."

- Mobile's 4:16 p.m. CDT statement keeps a Hurricane Watch on top of the Tropical Storm Warning for Conecuh and Covington counties in Alabama. Inland Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia, Okaloosa and Santa Rosa counties are under the Hurricane Warning.

In its 4 p.m. discussion the Center said more Tropical Storm and High Wind Watches and Warnings "may be required" for central and northern Alabama, extreme eastern Mississippi and western and northern Georgia "later tonight."

*Sources: NWS Tropical Cyclone Local Statements from Birmingham (4:15 and 7:18 p.m. CDT), Tallahassee (5:35 p.m. EDT), Jackson (4:18 p.m. CDT), Mobile (4:16 p.m. CDT) and Peachtree City (5:26 p.m. EDT); National Hurricane Center Discussion 9.*

The rain

The 4 p.m. advisory raised the main rain range and drew a separate line for the Carolinas:

The Center still expects flash and urban flooding, "with considerable impacts possible across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia," and river flooding, "some of which could be significant." It says an isolated tornado risk begins Friday night along the Alabama and Panhandle coast and in far southwest Georgia, and moves into eastern Alabama and Georgia on Saturday.

*Source: National Hurricane Center Isaias Advisories 8 and 9. Forecast amounts, not measurements.*

In its 4 p.m. key messages, the Center asks residents of the surge warning area to "follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so," and asks people under the Hurricane Warning to "prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages." The 7 p.m. advisory still says preparations "should be rushed to completion in the warning area." The federal preparedness guide is at https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes. This afternoon's story on the inland watches is at /journal/beat/isaias-85-mph-inland-watches-alabama-georgia-tennessee-2026-10-08/.

This is a summary of official warnings, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials. The National Hurricane Center: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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