THE WEATHER BEAT · OCT 7

Isaias reaches 65 mph Wednesday evening as Hurricane Watches reach inland Alabama and Tropical Storm Watches spread across 18 more counties

Coastal watches held steady Wednesday afternoon, but Isaias went from 45 to 65 mph by 7 p.m. CDT. Mobile and Tallahassee pushed the watches inland, and.

By the Weather Rock October 7, 2026, 9:04 p.m. · 8 min read

GOES satellite view of the event region — The Gulf of Mexico from GOES East at 6:30 p.m. CDT Wednesday, 7 October 2026, with Tropical Storm Isaias in the Bay of Campeche. Image: NOAA GOES-East GeoColor via NASA GIBS, 2026-10-07 23:30Z.

Key points

At 7 p.m. CDT Wednesday the National Hurricane Center put Tropical Storm Isaias's top winds near 65 mph. That is up from 45 mph at 10 a.m. The Center expects it to become a hurricane by Thursday morning and to make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.
The coastal watches did not change this afternoon. Inland they grew: NWS Mobile added a Hurricane Watch for Conecuh, Covington and Escambia counties in Alabama. NWS Mobile and NWS Tallahassee together added Tropical Storm Watches for 18 counties in Alabama, Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle.
The 4 p.m. CDT forecast has Isaias at its peak of about 110 mph Friday afternoon, before landfall. Rain from Friday through the weekend is now forecast at 3 to 7 inches, with local totals up to 10 inches, from far southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

Isaias, Wednesday evening: stronger, and the watches move inland

Isaias spent Wednesday in the Bay of Campeche and grew faster than its track moved. At 10 a.m. CDT it had 45 mph winds and a central pressure of 1000 millibars. By the 4 p.m. advisory, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew had measured the pressure at 994 millibars, and the Hurricane Center raised the winds to 65 mph. Its 4 p.m. headline read: "Isaias quickly intensifying, forecast to be a hurricane by Thursday morning." At 7 p.m. the Center reported that Air Force Hurricane Hunters were in the storm again.

The track barely changed. The 4 p.m. discussion said Isaias "is basically on track," and the forecast was "adjusted slightly to the east." The first key message also changed its wording. Isaias "is expected to strengthen and be a strong hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday." On wind, the Center told people in the Hurricane Watch to "prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages."

On the coast, the watch lines stayed where they were set this morning. Inland, they grew. Mobile's statement at 4:10 p.m. CDT added a Hurricane Watch for Conecuh, Covington and Escambia counties in Alabama. It also added a Tropical Storm Watch for eight counties in Alabama and Mississippi, as far north as Wilcox and Greene. Tallahassee's statement at 5:06 p.m. EDT added ten more counties to the Tropical Storm Watch, across southeast Alabama and the inland Florida Panhandle. Tallahassee explained why: "An expected fast forward speed may also lead to the wind threat extending further inland." Mobile said its rain forecast was held to 3 to 7 inches, with up to 10 near the coast, "with the fast speed of the hurricane at landfall." New Orleans dropped its Storm Surge Watch for Upper St. Bernard and still names Friday into Saturday as the most likely time for impacts.

In the evening statements, the storm sat about 630 miles south-southwest of Mobile, about 680 miles southwest of Panama City and about 530 miles south-southwest of New Orleans. There is still time, and every office says the same thing: the track and timing are still uncertain.

Item	10 a.m. CDT (Adv 4)	7 p.m. CDT (Adv 5A)
Center	22.4N 93.6W	22.8N 92.4W
Distance	About 540 mi SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi	About 480 mi SSW of the mouth of the Mississippi; about 200 mi WNW of Progreso, Mexico
Max sustained winds	45 mph	65 mph
Tropical-storm-force wind radius	Up to 45 mi	Up to 60 mi
Pressure	1000 mb	994 mb (29.36 in)
Movement	ENE, 8 mph	ENE, 65 degrees, 8 mph
Rain, Fri through weekend, far SE Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle	3 to 6 in, locally 10	3 to 7 in, locally 10
Landfall wording	Approach the coast Friday	Landfall late Friday or early Saturday
Wind timing	TS conditions midday Friday, hurricane conditions late Friday	Unchanged

NHC forecast point (Discussion 5, 4 p.m. CDT)	Position	Max winds
Thu 1 a.m. CDT	23.1N 91.8W	80 mph
Thu 1 p.m. CDT	24.1N 90.1W	90 mph
Fri 1 a.m. CDT	25.8N 88.7W	105 mph
Fri 1 p.m. CDT	28.1N 87.6W	110 mph
Sat 1 a.m. CDT	31.0N 87.3W, inland	70 mph

Peak surge if it arrives at high tide (Adv 5A)	Height above ground
Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL	5 to 7 ft
Mobile Bay	5 to 7 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS	3 to 5 ft
Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River, FL	4 to 6 ft
Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, FL	2 to 4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain	1 to 3 ft

Office	Statement issued	What changed this afternoon
NWS Mobile	4:10 p.m. CDT	Hurricane Watch added: Conecuh, Covington, Escambia (AL). Tropical Storm Watch added: Butler, Clarke, Crenshaw, George, Greene, Monroe, Washington, Wilcox
NWS Tallahassee	5:06 p.m. EDT	Tropical Storm Watch added: Calhoun, Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston, Inland Franklin, Jackson, Northern Liberty, Southern Liberty (2:16 p.m.: Hurricane Watch for Central and North Walton; Tropical Storm Watch for Holmes, Inland Bay, Inland Gulf, Washington)
NWS New Orleans	4:02 p.m. CDT	Storm Surge Watch cancelled for Upper St. Bernard (1:03 p.m.: Hurricane Watch added for Northern Harrison and Northern Jackson)
NWS Tampa Bay	5:06 p.m. EDT	None. Storm Surge Watch for Coastal Levy, up to 4 ft from the Suwannee River to Yankeetown

*Sources: National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory 4 (10 a.m. CDT), Advisory 5 and Discussion 5 (4 p.m. CDT), Intermediate Advisory 5A (7 p.m. CDT), Wednesday, October 7; NWS Tropical Cyclone Local Statements from Mobile, Tallahassee, New Orleans and Tampa Bay, as issued. Forecast times are converted from UTC. This is a forecast, not a measurement.*

What the offices ask of people in the watch

The Hurricane Center's advice to people in the Storm Surge Watch has not changed: "follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so." Tampa Bay's statement repeated its plain line: "Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit." The federal preparedness guide is at https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes.

This is a summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials. The National Hurricane Center: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The rock's live forecast for the places in this story