THE WEATHER BEAT · OCT 3
The Missouri River crest heads for Jefferson City: moderate flooding forecast Tuesday as upstream crests ease
The St. Louis office now expects the Missouri at Jefferson City to crest at 25.6 feet early Tuesday, as upstream forecasts at Glasgow and Boonville ease.
Key points
- The Missouri River flood has moved to the NWS St. Louis office's stretch of the river. Its 10:23 p.m. CDT Friday warning says Jefferson City will reach moderate flooding, with a crest of 25.6 feet early Tuesday morning. Chamois and Hermann are forecast to crest a few hours later.
- Upstream, the Kansas City office lowered its crests a little overnight. Glasgow is now forecast to reach 30.7 feet early Monday, down from the 31.1 feet in Friday's forecast. Boonville is now forecast at 26.8 feet, down from 27.2 feet.
- At 7:47 a.m. CDT Saturday, 54 Flood Warnings were in force from 14 National Weather Service offices. On Friday at midday there were 77 from 18 offices.
Yesterday into today: the crest comes down a few tenths
The Missouri River is carrying the rain that fell behind Wednesday's storms in Kansas and Nebraska. The water is now moving down the river's last two hundred miles. On Friday night the forecasts for the upstream gages came down by a few tenths of a foot. At the same time, new warnings were issued for the gages further downstream.
Waverly shows the change most clearly. On Friday morning the forecast called for a crest of 27.0 feet on Sunday morning. By 5 a.m. Saturday the river at Waverly stood at 24.8 feet. The 5:58 a.m. warning now has it cresting at 25.7 feet this evening, earlier and lower than Friday's forecast. Glasgow is still the one Kansas City gage forecast to reach moderate flooding. It read 21.9 feet at 7:30 p.m. Friday and is forecast to crest at 30.7 feet early Monday morning. That is still under 32 feet, the level where the warning says State Highway 240 west of Glasgow goes under water and the city park begins to flood. At 27 feet, the warning says, "secondary roads and homes behind levees may be inundated."
The Grand River at Sumner, which feeds the Missouri, was close to its top on Friday evening. It stood at 33.6 feet at 6:45 p.m. and was forecast to crest at 34.0 feet this morning. Downstream near Brunswick, the Grand is forecast to crest at 24.2 feet early Sunday afternoon.
| Gage | Latest stage (CDT) | Flood stage | Forecast crest | Friday's story said |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri River at Napoleon, Mo. | 20.6 ft (7:00 p.m. Fri.) | 17.0 ft | 24.2 ft early Sun. | 24.5 ft |
| Missouri River at Waverly, Mo. | 24.8 ft (5:00 a.m. Sat.) | 20.0 ft | 25.7 ft Sat. evening | 27.0 ft |
| Missouri River at Miami, Mo. | no current reading | 18.0 ft | 26.3 ft Sun. evening | 26.6 ft |
| Missouri River at Glasgow, Mo. | 21.9 ft (7:30 p.m. Fri.) | 25.0 ft | 30.7 ft early Mon. | 31.1 ft |
| Missouri River at Boonville, Mo. | 15.4 ft (7:04 p.m. Fri.) | 21.0 ft | 26.8 ft early Mon. afternoon | 27.2 ft |
| Grand River near Sumner, Mo. | 33.6 ft (6:45 p.m. Fri.) | 26.0 ft | 34.0 ft Sat. morning | 34.1 ft |
| Grand River near Brunswick, Mo. | 17.4 ft (5:02 p.m. Fri.) | 19.0 ft | 24.2 ft early Sun. afternoon | 24.7 ft |
*Source: NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill Flood Warnings (7:43 and 7:48 p.m. CDT Oct. 2, and 5:58 a.m. CDT Oct. 3, 2026), as read from api.weather.gov at 7:47 a.m. CDT Oct. 3. "Friday's story said" is the forecast in this desk's Oct. 2 story. Each stage is dated by the product that reported it. River forecasts change with each issuance.*
Today, officially: Jefferson City, Chamois and Hermann
The St. Louis office covers the river below Boonville. Its warning sent at 10:23 p.m. Friday expects the crest to arrive there on Tuesday. At 9:45 p.m. Friday the river at Jefferson City stood at 11.8 feet, far below its 23-foot flood stage. The forecast has it passing flood stage Sunday afternoon and cresting at 25.6 feet early Tuesday morning, which is moderate flooding. The first impact the warning lists comes at 26.3 feet: State Route 179 near Sandy Hook closes, and so does State Highway K one mile east of McBaine. The forecast crest is under that line by seven tenths of a foot.
Below Jefferson City, the river near Chamois is forecast to rise above its 17-foot flood stage early Monday morning and crest at 19.1 feet early Tuesday afternoon. At Hermann the river is forecast to pass its 21-foot flood stage late Monday morning and crest at 23.1 feet early Tuesday afternoon. That is above the 22.3 feet where, according to the warning, the southern parts of Old Rock Road and Twisters Road south of Rhineland start to flood. All three St. Louis warnings say that "rainfall heavier than forecast could cause river levels to rise even higher than predicted."
The same St. Louis package has minor flooding forecast on the Mississippi River at Louisiana and Clarksville, Mo., this weekend. The warnings give the stages but do not say where the water came from, so this story does not say either. The Storm Prediction Center's day 1 outlook reads: "Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight."
| Gage | Stage Friday night (CDT) | Flood stage | Forecast crest | Severity forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri River at Jefferson City, Mo. | 11.8 ft (9:45 p.m.) | 23.0 ft | 25.6 ft early Tue. | Moderate |
| Missouri River near Chamois, Mo. | 5.8 ft (7:00 a.m. Fri.) | 17.0 ft | 19.1 ft early Tue. afternoon | Minor |
| Missouri River at Hermann, Mo. | 9.3 ft (9:30 p.m.) | 21.0 ft | 23.1 ft early Tue. afternoon | Minor |
| Mississippi River at Louisiana, Mo. | 13.4 ft (10:00 p.m.) | 15.0 ft | 15.6 ft early Sun. afternoon | Minor |
| Mississippi River at Clarksville, Mo. | 23.0 ft (10:00 p.m.) | 25.0 ft | 25.7 ft Mon. morning | Minor |
- Flood Warnings in force at 7:47 a.m. CDT Saturday: 54, from 14 offices. Kansas City 12, Quad Cities 9, Omaha 7, Des Moines 7, St. Louis 6, Topeka 3, the rest 10.
*Source: NWS St. Louis Flood Warnings (10:23 p.m. CDT Oct. 2, 2026), SPC day 1 outlook, active alerts count from api.weather.gov at 7:47 a.m. CDT Oct. 3. The Chamois reading is the one the warning carries, from 7 a.m. Friday.*
This is a summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials, and for river forecasts see water.noaa.gov.
The rock's live forecast for the places in this story
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