THE WEATHER BEAT · OCT 24

Hurricane Vance drops to 90 mph off southwest Mexico, with up to 10 inches of rain forecast for Colima, Michoacan and Jalisco

Cold water and wind shear broke Vance's eyewall on Saturday. NHC says a Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for Mexico's southwest coast, and its rain.

By the Weather Rock October 24, 2026, 8:16 p.m. · 6 min read

GOES satellite view of the event region — Hurricane Vance off the southwest coast of Mexico at 2300 UTC on 24 October 2026. Image: NOAA GOES-East GeoColor via NASA GIBS, 2026-10-24 23:00Z.

Key points

At 3 p.m. CST Saturday, Hurricane Vance had 90 mph winds, down from 105 mph six hours earlier. It was about 335 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, moving north-northwest at 6 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
No coastal watches or warnings are in effect yet. NHC says a Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for parts of Mexico's southwestern coast tonight or on Sunday.
Rain is the main hazard. NHC forecasts 4 to 6 inches through Thursday across Colima and western Michoacan and Jalisco, with isolated totals around 10 inches, and warns of flooding and mudslides on steep ground.

Yesterday

Vance lost a good deal of its structure on Saturday. NHC's 3 p.m. CST discussion says the storm "has become significantly less organized" because of two things: cold water near the center and stronger southwesterly wind shear. Microwave data showed the eyewall had broken open. The remaining thunderstorms were only on the north side, and visible satellite pictures put the low-level center near or just south of the southern edge of that storm mass.

NHC lowered the intensity to 80 knots, about 90 mph, and then said plainly that "this could be quite generous, as the current structure does not look much like a hurricane." At 9 a.m. the storm had 105 mph winds and a pressure of 970 mb. By 3 p.m. the pressure had risen to 977 mb. The wind field stayed the same size. Hurricane-force winds reach 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds reach 150 miles.

Hurricane Vance, NHC Advisory 14, 3 p.m. CST Sat Oct 24
Position	13.3N 103.3W
Distance	about 335 mi SW of Acapulco, 400 mi S of Manzanillo
Maximum winds	90 mph (80 kt; NHC calls this "quite generous")
Pressure	977 mb (28.85 in)
Motion	north-northwest (340 degrees) at 6 mph
Hurricane-force winds	out to 30 miles from the center
Tropical-storm-force winds	out to 150 miles from the center
Watches and warnings	none in effect
Next complete advisory	9 p.m. CST

Change through Saturday	Advisory 13, 9 a.m. CST	Advisory 14, 3 p.m. CST
Position	12.9N 103.0W	13.3N 103.3W
Maximum winds	105 mph	90 mph
Pressure	970 mb	977 mb
Rain forecast, through Thursday	3 to 6 in, isolated near 10 in	4 to 6 in, isolated near 10 in

*Source: NWS National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Vance Advisory 13 (9 a.m. CST, 1500 UTC Oct 24), Advisory 14 (3 p.m. CST, 2100 UTC Oct 24), and Discussion 14 (3 p.m. CST, 2100 UTC Oct 24). CST is UTC minus 6.*

Today, officially

For the next half day or so, NHC expects the storm to keep weakening. The 3 p.m. discussion says Vance is crossing "a pool of colder water with temperatures near 27C that has been upwelled by several previous tropical cyclones," and moderate shear is working on it at the same time. Later, closer to the Mexican coast, the water warms to about 29C. NHC says that could allow the storm to strengthen a little again if the shear eases, and it shows 85 mph at 48 hours. It also says Vance could weaken more than forecast before it reaches that warmer water.

The track depends on how much of the storm holds together. Vance is moving into weak steering currents and should slow down over the next day or so. NHC says a weaker storm that gets sheared apart would drift more to the west-northwest, while a stronger, deeper one would keep creeping north. The guidance shifted west on Saturday, and NHC moved its track west with it. It says more westward shifts may be needed if Vance keeps losing organization. In its Key Messages, NHC says it is "too early to say what wind and storm surge impacts Vance may cause along the coast of Mexico."

The rain forecast is the most certain part. Vance is slow, and NHC expects heavy rain on Mexico's west coast from Michoacan to Jalisco through much of next week. It forecasts 4 to 6 inches through Thursday across Colima and the western parts of Michoacan and Jalisco, with isolated totals around 10 inches. NHC says that rain may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially on steep terrain. Swells from Vance will reach the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and keep surf and rip currents dangerous into next week.

This is the same stretch of coast where Hurricane Trudy brought a Hurricane Warning a week ago.

NHC forecast, Discussion 14 (UTC)	Position	Winds
Sun Oct 25, 0600Z	14.0N 103.6W	85 mph
Sun Oct 25, 1800Z	14.9N 104.0W	80 mph
Mon Oct 26, 0600Z	15.6N 104.4W	80 mph
Mon Oct 26, 1800Z	16.0N 104.6W	85 mph
Tue Oct 27, 0600Z	16.4N 104.8W	80 mph
Tue Oct 27, 1800Z	17.0N 104.9W	75 mph
Wed Oct 28, 1800Z	18.1N 105.2W	60 mph
Thu Oct 29, 1800Z	19.3N 105.6W	45 mph

*All figures are as NHC states them. NHC tells people in the area to follow their national weather service, which for this coast is Mexico's.*

This is a morning summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials. National Hurricane Center: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/