THE WEATHER BEAT · OCT 22

Moenkopi Wash runs more than 9 feet above flood stage near Tuba City, and the Paria River peaks near 2,500 cubic feet per second

Overnight gauges: Moenkopi Wash at 36.38 ft against a 27 ft flood stage, the Paria near 2,500 cfs, and 3.5 inches in Santa Barbara County.

By the Weather Rock October 22, 2026, 9:57 a.m. · 8 min read ShareCopy link

Overnight, the gauges answered

For two days this story was about watches. Overnight it turned into gauge readings. Before dawn the rain had fallen on ground that Flagstaff's discussion called "saturated across northern Arizona", and the rivers rose.

The highest reading was on the Moenkopi Wash. Yesterday afternoon's story reported a rise of around 8 feet there. By 5:45 a.m. MST Thursday, the gauge near Tuba City read 36.38 feet, more than 9 feet above its 27-foot flood stage. The Flagstaff warning says that at 27 feet, water begins to encroach on homes in lower Moenkopi Village and floods the crop fields along the river. It also reports elevated flow on the Little Colorado River near Cameron, and names Salt Trail Canyon, Blue Water Base Camp and Old Fish Camp Site. Farther east, Chinle Creek at Chinle in Canyon de Chelly reached a 3.4-foot stage at 3 a.m., below its 4-foot flood stage. Flagstaff kept that warning in force through the morning for the land downstream.

Across the state line in Utah, the Salt Lake City office said radar and automated rain gauges showed 1 to 2 inches of rain at the headwaters of the Paria and Escalante rivers and Wahweap Creek. The Paria at Highway 89 peaked at nearly 2,500 cubic feet per second overnight. The office said those flood waves would keep moving downstream through the morning, across the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, and that many backcountry roads there were expected to become impassable. Grand Junction's warning for San Juan County, Utah, put the rain already fallen at 1 to 3 inches, and named Monticello, Mexican Hat and Bluff.

On the coast, the Los Angeles office issued its Flash Flood Warning from gauge reports: 1 to 3.5 inches in east central Santa Barbara County, with rock slides and mud slides expected. It names northern Goleta, Mission Canyon and Highway 154 over San Marcos Pass.

*Source: NWS alert products on api.weather.gov, read at 13:55Z October 22. Stage, flow and rainfall figures are each warning's own. "Measured" is quoted as the product gives it; a radar-indicated amount is an estimate, not a gauge reading. The Flagstaff Flood Warning's WHEN line reads "Until 200 PM MST /300 PM MDT/ Tonight"; this table follows its expiry field, 2 p.m. MST.*

Today, officially

As of the Day 1 outlook on the wire at 13:55Z, the Storm Prediction Center's highest risk category is Slight. Its summary expects "scattered severe thunderstorms" across the Southwest into tonight, with the strongest cells over Arizona and western New Mexico this afternoon and evening, and says "large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible." Overnight, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691 covered Coconino, Navajo, Apache and Yavapai counties until 10 a.m. MST, and Watch 692 covered Gila, Maricopa, Pinal, Graham and Greenlee counties, including Phoenix and Mesa, until 11 a.m. MST.

Flagstaff's discussion gives the setup in plain terms. An "unusually deep low-pressure system off the southern California coast" is pulling a subtropical moisture plume into Arizona. The office says the cold front behind it will move the severe weather and flash flood risk east from later Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, and that drier, more stable air behind it will stop storms from forming. It expects Friday to be drier, and below-normal temperatures with more showers on Saturday.

*Source: the SPC Day 1 outlook summary as the house wire printed it at 13:55Z (the wire printed no issue time), and the NWS Flagstaff Area Forecast Discussion, 530 a.m. MST October 22.*

What the reader can check

The table's last column but one shows each warning's source line. Some were issued from what a gauge measured, others from what radar estimated. The Weather School page on how radar works explains why those two are not the same number. Tomorrow's gauges on the Paria and the Moenkopi will show whether the front cleared the rain as Flagstaff's discussion expects.

This is a morning summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials.

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