THE WEATHER BEAT · OCT 12

Congaree River forecast to flood its national park by Tuesday morning as the Catawba lakes stay high

The Congaree is forecast to crest at 16.7 feet in its national park Tuesday morning, above the 15-foot mark where the lower boardwalk floods.

By the Weather Rock October 12, 2026, 2:23 p.m. · 8 min read

The Lower Boardwalk Trail in Congaree National Park, South Carolina, photographed on 2 June 2011. Photo: Ken Lund from Reno, Nevada, USA, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0. This crop carries the same licence.

Key points

The Congaree River in South Carolina is forecast to crest Tuesday morning at 16.7 feet at its Congaree National Park gauge. That is above the 15-foot mark where the park's lower boardwalk starts to flood. At the Carolina Eastman gauge the Columbia office forecasts moderate flooding, cresting at 119.7 feet.
In North Carolina the rivers have started to fall. The French Broad at Blantyre peaked at 17.7 feet and is expected below flood stage by late this afternoon. Lookout Shoals Lake on the Catawba has dropped since Sunday but is still at action stage.
Farther south, the St. Johns River near Astor, Florida, is in moderate flood and is expected to stay near 3.1 feet all week. The Myakka and Withlacoochee are forecast to crest at levels that match their 1997 and 1979 marks.

Yesterday, and the water since

The rain over the western Carolinas is over, but the rivers are still carrying it. On Sunday morning the French Broad at Blantyre was forecast to crest at 16.5 to 17 feet. Greenville-Spartanburg's 11:06 a.m. EDT update today says the river reached 17.7 feet in the 24 hours ending at 9 a.m. Monday, and read 17.0 feet at 9 a.m. The update credits "widespread 4 to 6 inches of storm total rainfall." Water still covers farmland between the river and the old railroad bed, and the boat access at Grove Bridge Road and Crab Creek Road. The river is expected to drop below flood stage late this afternoon. Upstream near Fletcher, the advisory gives the river at 11.3 feet at 10:30 a.m. Its impact line for 11.5 feet says Butler Bridge Road is under up to 6 inches of water and closed.

East of the mountains, the water moved into the Catawba River lakes. Greenville-Spartanburg's 12:54 p.m. EDT warning for Lookout Shoals Lake, in Alexander, Catawba and Iredell counties, put it in one line: "water continues to move downriver following the heavy rain event over the weekend." The lake has dropped since Sunday afternoon but is still at action stage. Yards, docks and boat ramps along the shore are flooded, and the warning runs until 9 p.m. EDT tonight.

Gauge	Latest stage	Flood stage	Outlook	Flood History line
French Broad River at Blantyre NC	17.0 ft, 9:00 a.m. EDT (24 h max 17.7 ft)	16.0 ft (minor)	Below flood stage late this afternoon	17.0 ft on 05/16/1976
French Broad River near Fletcher NC	11.3 ft, 10:30 a.m. EDT	13.0 ft (action 10.0)	Falls to 4.0 ft Saturday morning
Lookout Shoals Lake NC	At action stage, 12:45 p.m. EDT		Low-lying flooding through at least this evening

*Sources: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg Flood Warnings for the French Broad River at Blantyre (11:06 a.m. EDT) and Lookout Shoals Lake (12:54 p.m. EDT), and the Flood Advisory for the French Broad near Fletcher (10:59 a.m. EDT). Outlooks are forecasts.*

Today, officially: the Congaree

The Congaree is the river to watch tonight. As of the NWS Columbia warnings issued at 10 a.m. EDT, the Congaree National Park gauge near Gadsden read 11.4 feet. It is forecast to pass the 15-foot flood stage late this afternoon and crest at 16.7 feet Tuesday morning. At 15 feet, the office says, flooding starts in the park and reaches parts of the lower boardwalk. The forecast crest stays just under 17 feet, where the access road to the Sandy Run subdivision floods. The river is expected to drop below flood stage Wednesday evening.

The Carolina Eastman gauge, which covers Calhoun, Richland and Lexington counties, is forecast to go higher. It read 114.2 feet at 8 a.m., against a flood stage of 115. The forecast crest is 119.7 feet Tuesday morning, which the office lists as moderate flooding. At 119 feet its text calls for extensive flooding in the national park and some flooded farmland. In Columbia itself the river is under an advisory, not a warning. It is forecast to crest at 12.9 feet just after midnight, and the office says most of the West Columbia Riverwalk between Gervais Street and SC 12 is underwater at 12.5 feet. None of the three Columbia products gives a cause for the rise, so this brief does not give one either.

Gauge	10 a.m. product reading	Flood stage	Forecast crest	Back below flood stage
Congaree River at Carolina Eastman SC	114.2 ft, 8:00 a.m.	115.0 ft	119.7 ft Tuesday morning (moderate)	Early Wednesday afternoon
Congaree River at Congaree NP near Gadsden SC	11.4 ft, 9:00 a.m.	15.0 ft	16.7 ft Tuesday morning (minor)	Wednesday evening
Congaree River at Columbia SC (advisory)	9.6 ft, 9:00 a.m.	19.0 ft (action 10.0)	12.9 ft just after midnight

*Source: NWS Columbia SC Flood Warning and Flood Advisory, both issued 10:00 a.m. EDT Monday. Crests are forecasts.*

Elsewhere in the Southeast

Florida and Georgia have their own slow rivers. NWS Melbourne's 10:19 a.m. EDT warning keeps the St. Johns River near Astor in moderate flood, at 3.1 feet against a flood stage of 2.3. The office puts that down to "north winds and upstream heavy rainfall draining through the basin," and expects the river to stay at about that level through the week. Its impact line for 3 feet has water approaching or entering the lowest homes on Wildhog Road and along McPherson Lane. In southeast Georgia, the Satilla River at Atkinson read 14.0 feet, a foot over flood stage. It is forecast to reach 14.6 feet Wednesday evening, and the warning says "additional rises are possible thereafter."

Two Florida rivers are forecast to match old marks. The Myakka River at Myakka River State Park is expected to crest at 7.1 feet Tuesday evening, the same as its crest of August 16, 1997. The Withlacoochee at US 41 in Dunnellon is expected to crest at 28.2 feet this afternoon, exactly its flood stage and the same as its crest of October 2, 1979.

Gauge	Latest stage	Flood stage	Outlook
St. Johns River near Astor FL	3.1 ft, 9:30 a.m. EDT	2.3 ft	Steady near 3.1 ft through the week (moderate)
Satilla River at Atkinson GA	14.0 ft, 9:45 a.m. EDT	13.0 ft	14.6 ft Wednesday evening, further rises possible
Myakka River at Myakka River State Park FL	6.9 ft, 9:00 a.m. EDT	7.0 ft	Crest 7.1 ft Tuesday evening (crest of 7.1 ft on 08/16/1997)
Withlacoochee River at US 41 Dunnellon FL	28.1 ft, 8:45 a.m. EDT	28.2 ft	Crest 28.2 ft this afternoon (crest of 28.2 ft on 10/02/1979)
Shoal River near Crestview FL	10.9 ft, 7:15 a.m. CDT	8.0 ft	Below flood stage late Tuesday morning

*Sources: NWS Flood Warnings from Melbourne (10:19 a.m. EDT), Jacksonville (10:37 a.m. EDT), Tampa Bay Ruskin (9:26 a.m. EDT) and Mobile (7:58 a.m. CDT), Monday. Crests are forecasts; the Flood History comparisons are the offices' own.*

Sunday's story on the flash flooding in western North Carolina is at /journal/beat/isaias-remnants-flash-flood-warnings-western-north-carolina-2026-10-11/.

This is a morning summary, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials. NWS Columbia: https://www.weather.gov/cae/ NWS Greenville-Spartanburg: https://www.weather.gov/gsp/ NWS Melbourne: https://www.weather.gov/mlb/

The rock's live forecast for the places in this story