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THE WEATHER BEAT · EXPLAINER · OCT 26

Hurricane force with no hurricane: what Monday's Bering Sea warning means, and the gale and storm bands under it

NWS Anchorage forecast south winds of 50 to 65 knots in the Bering Sea Monday. Here is how gale, storm and hurricane force warnings are set by speed alone.

Bering Sea at Nome, Alaska
The Bering Sea at Nome, Alaska, photographed on 8 June 2006. Photo: ra64 from nome, usa, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0. This crop carries the same licence.

Key points

  • At 3:42 a.m. AKDT Monday, NWS Anchorage put the Bering Sea west of the date line under a Hurricane Force Wind Warning. The forecast there is south winds of 50 to 65 knots Monday afternoon and seas of 22 to 37 feet. There is no hurricane anywhere near it.
  • The name comes from wind speed alone. The National Weather Service ladder runs gale (34 to 47 knots), storm (48 to 63 knots) and hurricane force (64 knots or more), and the glossary defines each one as "not directly associated with a tropical cyclone."
  • On land, NWS Fairbanks has a High Wind Warning for the Bering Strait Coast and St Lawrence Island from 4 p.m. Monday to 4 p.m. Tuesday AKDT, with gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Land products give wind in miles per hour. Marine products use knots.

The lesson

A hurricane is a storm with a warm core that forms over tropical water. Hurricane force is a speed. The two only share a name. Monday's Bering Sea warning is about speed.

The National Weather Service puts marine wind into bands, and each band has its own product. Its glossary gives the numbers. A Gale Warning is for "sustained surface winds, or frequent gusts, in the range of 34 knots (39 mph) to 47 knots (54 mph) inclusive." A Storm Warning covers 48 knots (55 mph) to 63 knots (73 mph). A Hurricane Force Wind Warning is for "sustained winds, or frequent gusts, of 64 knots (74 mph) or greater." All three definitions end the same way: "not directly associated with a tropical cyclone." When a real hurricane or tropical storm brings that wind, it gets tropical products instead.

Below those three is the Small Craft Advisory, and it has no single number. The glossary says its "thresholds governing the issuance of small craft advisories are specific to geographic areas," and that "there is no precise definition of a small craft."

Monday's Anchorage package lays the bands out side by side. The offshore zone west of 180 is forecast to reach S 50 to 65 knots in the afternoon. The top of that range clears 64 knots, so the zone carries the hurricane force product. The two zones just east of it, between 171W and 180, peak at 45 and 50 knots and carry Storm Warnings. The waters west of Saint Matthew Island are a different case: they carry a Storm Warning for "S 55 kt with gusts up to 70 kt" tonight. That sustained speed is inside the storm band, but the gusts are above 64 knots. The product does not say why it chose storm over hurricane force. The definition counts "frequent gusts," and "gusts up to" is a different phrase.

The sea heights need a note of their own. Every offshore product says its seas "represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height." A forecast of 22 to 37 feet does not cap the waves at 37 feet. It describes the average of the tallest third of them.

The national wire was full of marine products on Monday, and almost all of them came from this one storm. In a re-query of the alert feed just after 18Z, 42 of the 48 active Gale Warnings were from NWS Anchorage and NWS Fairbanks. One of the other six, off the South Carolina and Georgia coast, had already been cancelled. The three Alaska offices also issued 143 of the Small Craft Advisories in the same re-query.

Today, officially

As of the 3:42 a.m. AKDT Offshore Waters Forecast, the wind west of the date line backs to the southwest Monday night at 45 to 60 knots, drops to 25 to 40 knots Tuesday, and falls to 15 to 25 knots Tuesday afternoon. At the coast, the 2:28 a.m. AKDT High Wind Warning from NWS Fairbanks expects south to southeast winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph. It says that "high winds may move loose debris, damage property and cause power outages. Travel could be difficult." These products are replaced several times a day, so a newer one may already carry different numbers.

Product, issued Mon Oct 26ZonePeak forecastBand
Hurricane Force Wind Warning, NWS Anchorage, 3:42 a.m. AKDTBering Sea Offshore, west of 180 and east of the date lineS 50 to 65 kt Mon afternoon; seas 22 to 37 ft64 kt or more
Storm Warning, NWS Anchorage, 3:42 a.m. AKDTBering Sea Offshore, 171W to 180, north of 56NS 35 to 50 kt Mon night; seas 19 to 32 ft48 to 63 kt
Storm Warning, NWS Anchorage, 3:42 a.m. AKDTBering Sea Offshore, 171W to 180, south of 56NS 35 to 50 kt Mon; seas 16 to 22 ft48 to 63 kt
Storm Warning, NWS Anchorage, 3:41 a.m. AKDTSaint Matthew Island WatersS 55 kt, gusts to 70 kt, west of the island Mon night; seas building to 35 ft48 to 63 kt
High Wind Warning, NWS Fairbanks, 2:28 a.m. AKDTBering Strait Coast (Shishmaref) and St Lawrence Island25 to 35 mph, gusts 50 to 60 mph, 4 p.m. Mon to 4 p.m. Tueland product, mph
NWS glossary bandKnotsmph
Gale Warning34 to 4739 to 54
Storm Warning48 to 6355 to 73
Hurricane Force Wind Warning64 or more74 or more

*Source: NWS Anchorage Offshore Waters and Coastal Waters Forecasts (3:41 and 3:42 a.m. AKDT Oct 26); NWS Fairbanks High Wind Warning (2:28 a.m. AKDT Oct 26); NWS glossary, https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=gale+warning, https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=storm+warning, https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=hurricane+force+wind+warning and https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=small+craft+advisory. Office counts come from a re-query of api.weather.gov active alerts at about 18Z Oct 26.*

This is a summary of official warnings, not emergency information. For live warnings see weather.gov and your local officials. NWS Anchorage: https://www.weather.gov/afc/ NWS Fairbanks: https://www.weather.gov/afg/

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